Whilst the auto industry are confident that driverless cars will become a reality, there is little real consensus over the exact date we can expect autonomous vehicles as a common feature on our roads.
To try and hone in on the matter somewhat, BDO Global have recently conducted an analysis of each of the predictions made on the rollout of driverless technology, and when each is aggregated, the industry appears to believe it will be early 2021 when we can expect our car to drive us around itself.
Not all driverless technology is the same
Making such aggregations is not easy, if for no other reason than there remains divergence on exactly what driverless technology means. The SAE International standard divides autonomous technology into five categories, and whilst most are aiming their predictions at level 4 status (high automation), this is by no means unanimous.
Level 4 status means that the vehicle is capable of taking the appropriate action in a wide range of different circumstances and situations. There is a clear difference between that and level 5 however, which mandates that the vehicle be capable of performing all aspects of driving under all road and environmental conditions.
Suffice to say, what many of us regard as autonomous technology is more level 5 than level 4, but even should such technology exist, the rules and regulations that are likely to govern it are still some way behind. Whether it’s insurance, payment plans, business models, taxation or auditing, there remain so many issues to be resolved before the technology enters the mainstream.
“In addition, the key element to the success of driverless cars is constant contact with its surroundings – i.e. IOT. Who will maintain this infrastructure to allow driverless cars to function as optimally as they should? From the car maker’s perspective, a subscription-based model may emerge for the owner of driverless cars. From the government’s perspective, unfortunately, the likely answer is some form of tax or levy,” BDO say.
As with so many predictions into the future, it’s likely that those into the roll out of driverless vehicles should be taken with a pinch of salt, especially as so much remains to be done before they are roadworthy on a large scale.
