As anyone that's played sports will tell you, there are times when everything seems ridiculously easy. In team sports it's long been regarded that once you get on a streak you're more likely to continue that streak. So if you've scored goals in the last few games the chances are good you'll continue your form in the next match.
A famous study from the 80's tried to explode this myth. Thomas Gilovich and his colleagues looked at the ‘hot hand’ belief in basketball, finding that there was no evidence of any ‘scoring streak’ in thousands of basketball games beyond what you would expect from natural variation in play.
That study drew analogies with flipping a coin. For instance if you had flipped a coin three times and received three heads, this has no bearing on the chances of you landing heads next time. Literally your last effort has no bearing on your next effort.
Research by Markus Raab however suggests that a so called hot hand can, and does, work. He suggests that each shot is not independent and players that hit the mark may raise their chances of scoring the next time. They seem to draw inspiration from their successes.
The study utilised volleyball as their area of study to try and dampen the impact of someone on a hot streak being marked more heavily and so on. In volleyball a number of factors exist to make it tougher to 'mark' a hot player out of the game. Nevertheless, belief in hot streaks does exist in the sport, so it made a good area to investigate.
The research revealed that over half the players in Germany volleyball leagues went on scoring streaks. They also found that other players were aware of who was on form, and made sure they passed to these players more often. So the notion of a hot hand does appear to exist.
The challenge for coaches and players now though is to understand how one gets onto a hot streak, and subsequently how to ensure it's maintained for as long as possible.
I think 'the zone' exists. Flipping a coin is purely a matter of chance, whereas scoring a goal does at least have an element of skill involved, both from the scorer themselves plus their team mates.
Interesting piece on this here http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2014/05…