The rise of AI has coincided with a huge amount of fear around the impact the technology will have on jobs.  Arguably the profession most in the spotlight has been drivers, as the march of autonomous vehicle technology creates an obvious challenge to the driving profession.

It’s a concern that need not worry the profession, at least according to a recent report commissioned by the American Center for Mobility and led by Michigan State University and supported by Texas A&M Transportation Institute.

The report suggests that even when autonomous vehicles are a widespread presence on our roads, it will only result in a modest number of trucking jobs being affected.

In the distance

The authors believe that the technology will be deployed in the latter half of the 2020s, at which point some in the passenger business (taxi drivers etc.) could be affected, but they suggest that the shortage of truck drivers in the industry already, coupled with the belief that the new technology will support rather than replace drivers, lends them to believe the B2B sector won’t be impacted as much.

“Automated vehicle technology could incorrectly be viewed as a change that will eliminate driving jobs; however, the more nuanced assessment is that over the next decade the innovation will foster broader societal changes resulting in shifts in the workplace and workforce demands,” the authors say. “Additionally, this level of advanced technology has the potential to lead to the creation of thousands of new jobs in the engineering, data analysis, cybersecurity and vehicle ‘monitoring’ areas. Based on data collected from industry experts during the study, there is already a significant demand in several of these areas related to AVs.” 

The authors believe this presents a clear opportunity for training to provide drivers with the skills required to work with the new technologies.  It’s something that the ACM are working on, as they partner with both academia and industry to help ensure these new skills are being developed in time for the arrival of the new technology.

“In the near-term there is great potential for these technologies to assist commercial drivers in safely operating trucks. Longer-term it will be important to define, develop and deliver targeted training for the workforce,” the researchers say.

Upskilling drivers

The authors make a number of recommendations as a result of their research, including:

• Conduct additional research that captures the input of the vehicle operators in different workforce sectors on what training they would be interested in pursuing.
• Identify, in greater detail, the specific skillsets needed by the automotive and technology industries to facilitate the creation and adoption of AVs.
• Establish rapid coursework and training that meets those specific needs.
• Conduct additional research to quantify the overall positive financial impact of automated vehicle technology on the economy as a whole, and the potential for job creation.

Most of all however, they believe that new autonomous technologies will fundamentally change the way many workers do their job.  The auto industry is already finding it very hard to recruit the talent they need, and they believe this is only likely to increase as new autonomous technologies proliferate.  It will require not only changes in skills for drivers, but also those involved in maintenance and other adjacent occupations.  Time will tell whether this adaptation occurs.