It seems one of those grim inevitabilities in life, that during whatever changes are thrown up, those at the bottom are least likely to be able to respond in a positive way. Studies have already highlighted the vulnerability of low-skilled workers to automation, and a recent study from the University of Michigan compounds this sense of vulnerability, especially among low-skilled men.
It reveals that men without a college education are increasingly up against it. Whereas all but 2.8% of men were actively working in 1960, this had risen to 12% by 2015. This may not sound like much, but it means 5.5 million men are no longer in the labor force, and the majority of those are men without a university education.
Massaged statistics
The paper highlights that despite the proportion of men who are technically regarded as unemployed, ie out of work but looking for work, has fallen in recent times, the total proportion of the workforce not working has been rising steadily.
The authors contend that many of the explanations for this phenomenon don’t really stand up to scrutiny. For instance, suggestions that the stagnant wages of low-skilled workers is caused by declining demand for their services cannot really explain why fewer and fewer men are looking for work at wages that haven’t changed much since the 1960s. Likewise, changes in social security, and especially in disability insurance, which were introduced in the 1980s shouldn’t impact men entering the workforce today.
Instead, the authors believe we must look beyond simple supply and demand and instead look at the difficulty inherent in maintaining a sufficiently rewarding job in parts of the country in economic decline, and the subsequent reluctance of people to move to more prosperous areas.
Family matters
The authors also propose that differing family structures also play a part, as in the 1960s it was common for marital arrangements to be founded on the principle that the husband worked and the wife cared for the household. That structure is fundamentally different today.
The proportion of men without a university education in marriage has fallen by up to 40% since the 1960s, due in large part to the growing financial self-sufficiency of women in that period. The authors believe these labor and marriage market forces have a big impact on one another and make the allure of a stable job less attractive than was previously the case.
“These factors have all converged to reduce stable employment, leading affected men to participate sporadically in the labor market and depend mostly on family members for income support,” the authors conclude.
