As populists have gained at the polls throughout the world, a growing amount of attention has been focused on the behavior and motivation of voters.  A recent study explored voter behavior in the context of an EU treaty, with a particular emphasis on the knowledge of voters and their subsequent behavior at the ballot box.

“Politicians and citizens with strong anti-establishment views, including populist movements, often articulate their views with high confidence,” the researchers explain. “This research puts that confidence into perspective and suggests that it may often be overconfidence.”

The researchers analyzed voter knowledge of the new EU treaty both before and after a key vote on April 6th 2016.  The treaty was based around greater political and economic connectivity between the EU and Ukraine.

A questionnaire was sent to a panel of voters around 6 weeks before the vote, with each volunteer asked to complete various factual questions about the referendum, their confidence in the correctness of their answers, and finally their political views.

The researchers then followed up with each volunteer after the vote, where they were asked to complete a fresh range of questions, including whether they voted in the referendum and how they voted.  The analysis revealed that for every measurement point of self-perceived knowledge, it was 1.62 times more likely that the individual voted for a populist party.  An increase in actual knowledge saw the likelihood of voting for a populist party reduce.

“The study does not show that anti-establishment voters are somehow less intelligent, or less concerned with society,” the authors conclude. “Future research may reveal whether the discrepancy between self-perceived understanding and actual knowledge is due to being uninformed or due to being misinformed.”