Listen to far right communities across Europe and there is palpable rage at the decision of Germany’s Angela Merkel to open her arms to refugees fleeing the Syrian civil war.  Many claim that this act has largely been responsible for the rise of far right tendencies across Europe, but is that really true?

New research from New York University suggests not, and finds that there is actually no evidence that the arrival of refugees into communities in German coincided with a shift in the attitude of residents towards a more anti-immigrant stance.  What’s more, this was also reflected at the polling booth, with no real shift in voting behavior either.

“Our analysis shows widespread anti-immigrant sentiments after the arrival of refugees in 2015, but these are unaffected by the presence of refugees in these citizens’ hometowns,” the authors say. “This is likely because those in this part of Germany are more focused on the wider impact of immigration on society rather than on local impact. Their personal experience with refugees, then, is relatively unimportant to their views and voting behavior.”

Changing demographics

The researchers focused on communities in eastern Germany who had relatively few migrants prior to Merkel’s decision in 2015, but then experienced a relatively large infusion of people from Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.

It’s common for exposure to migrants to soften attitudes towards them, so did this happen in Germany or did they harden their attitude instead?

The question is important as support for the far right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party surged from 6% in 2015 to 16% by 2018.  Their growth was even starker in eastern Germany, where their support grew from 7% to 27%.

The impact of immigration

How much of this shift can be attributed to the arrival of immigrants in these people’s hometown, and also do the attitudes of those Germans who are exposed to refugees differ from those without such exposure?

The researchers looked at the electoral records, and combined these with surveys conducted with 1,320 German citizens from 236 different municipalities across East Germany.  Around half of the communities began receiving refugees in 2015, with the other half not.

Interestingly, the results suggest no real change in either the communities that had experienced a rise in immigration and those that did not.  There was no noticeable difference in support for the AfD (or indeed any other party) between the two types of community, with the growth in support for the AfD common across both.

The survey results did reveal considerable support for far right parties and positions however.  For instance, over a third of respondents said they agreed that foreigners only come to Germany to exploit the welfare system, with similar numbers suggesting that child support should only be offered to native Germans.

While these views are unpleasant, and aired in large numbers, the direct interaction with immigrants and refugees appears to have little influence in their formation.

“Our work does not show that the arrival of refugees, in general, has no effect on natives’ attitudes and behavior,” the authors explain. “Undoubtedly, consensus for right-wing parties in eastern Germany has dramatically increased partly because of the refugees’ arrival. Rather, this study shows that the physical presence of refugees in a municipality does not affect local citizens’ vote and political attitudes on immigration.”