A common trend in elections throughout the developed world over the last few years has been the growing popularity of politicians and parties who claim to be ‘anti-establishment’.  These include Alternative for Germany, the 5 Stars Movement in Italy, and Podem in Spain.  We have seen such parties secure notable successes in southern and eastern Europe in the wake of the financial crisis in 2008.

New research from UPF Barcelona attempts to understand the roots of this growth in anti-establishment support, while at the same time examining the impact the economic crisis had on the electoral preferences of citizens across Europe.

The researchers used data from the European Social Survey (ESS) to explore the factors that they believe have the biggest impact on our decision to support a populist, challenger party as opposed to a more centrist, establishment party.

Lack of trust

“The empirical analysis reveals that votes for challenger parties can mainly be explained by the lack of trust in the principal actors of political representation (political parties and the ruling class). Also, citizens’ dissatisfaction with the domestic economic situation is another factor associated with the decision to vote for anti-establishment parties,” the researchers say.

As such, the researchers believe that challenger parties were able to focus and catalyze the discontent people had with the status quo, and the political establishment they believe represented it.  This is reflected in the anti-elitist rhetoric used by these parties.

The authors also believe that there is a clear relationship between the low levels of trust in politicians and the generally poor economic circumstances of those who back them.

“The mechanism of the protest vote prompted by the lack of trust is more intense in elections held in the context of a negative economic situation,” the researchers say. “The distrust in the traditional actors of political representation and the economic recession reinforce each other when determining the electoral success of anti-establishment parties.”

It’s a connection that the authors believe helps to explain why such challenger parties have been most successful in countries such as Spain and Italy, both of whom have suffered especially since 2008, although it’s perhaps less effective at explaining the rise of populism in the Visegrad region, which has largely weathered the financial storm of 2008 better than most.

It’s perhaps not a complete dissection of the rise of challenger parties therefore, but is interesting grist for the mill nonetheless.