The Brexit referendum result in 2016 was celebrated by Euroskeptic parties across Europe, with many believing it would be the first step in the disintegration of the European Union. A new study from Queen Mary University of London suggests, however, that this surge has largely petered out, and the remainder of the EU has become more united in support of membership over the past three and a half years.
The researchers focused their attention on right-wing populist parties in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Italy, all of whom were founding members of the EU. They aimed to understand whether anti-EU sentiment had firmed up after the UK referendum, and the impact of this in national election campaigns in each nation.
The analysis found that while there was undoubted enthusiasm in the wake of the British decision, this failed to result in any meaningful change.
A halted charge
For instance, in the Netherlands, the Freedom Party of Geert Wilders decided not to focus on EU withdrawal, despite being largely in favor of it. Similarly, the Euroskepticism of Marine Le Pen’s Front National was heavily toned down during the second round of the French presidential election.
A similar picture emerged in Germany, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party lauded the Brexit decision and was bombastic about the prospect of a similar vote in Germany, but it was a position they soon moved away from.
In Italy, the Lega Nord initially campaigned for a departure from the Euro currency in 2014, and was similarly supportive of the Brexit decision, but even they had moved away from unconditionally supporting the idea of Italy leaving the EU by the time of the 2018 national election.
A lack of public support
The authors argue that the reason for this shift is due to a fundamental lack of public support for leaving the EU. They also believe that the trials and tribulations experienced by the UK since the referendum have acted as a deterrent to many of those who previously supported similar moves in their own countries.
“While various commentators, as well as some Euroskeptic parties themselves, initially predicted a Brexit-instigated domino-effect with more and more countries choosing to leave the EU, this prediction proved inaccurate at least in the short run,” the researchers say. “Our study also shows that, beyond Britain, there are few ‘hard Euroskeptic’ parties supporting their country’s exit from the European Union. Whilst radical right parties are clearly Euroskeptic, European integration is often not their most important campaign theme.”
How lasting this inoculation effect proves to be depends to some extent on how, as it comes to be executed, Brexit affects the British economy, society and politics. The greater the success of Brexit, as perceived by citizens and elites in the remaining member states, the more likely it is that this inoculation effect of Brexit will wear off. For now though, the predicted groundswell of support for leaving the EU has failed to materialize.
