While strategies to combat the coronavirus pandemic have varied around the world, a common tactic has been to self-isolate as much as possible.  As the virus spread from China into Europe, the UK’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Witty highlighted the importance of using lockdown tactics sparingly because there was a limit to how much people would obey instructions to stay indoors.

It’s a topic focused on in new research from Johns Hopkins University, which explored how long people might obey instruction to self-isolate.

The study found that in a hypothetical scenario, Italians were more likely to adhere to guidance to stay in if they thought it was for shorter periods than they had expected.  When the isolation periods were longer than expected, they were more likely to disobey.

Staying at home

This basic finding is important, as there is a strong risk that people will be asked/forced to stay at home for prolonged periods, and quite possibly for longer periods than they were expecting.  The study found that the willingness to break the isolation was strongest among those who had previously been obeying the rules properly.

While Donald Trump clearly set expectations that things would clear up by Easter, most governments have preferred instead to keep the isolation period more open-ended.  The research suggests this is a wise approach, as public obedience is likely to weaken considerably if they receive negative surprises.

If government’s don’t have an open-ended timeline, they should at least be transparent in their communication with people so they’re mentally prepared for a prolonged period of self-isolation.

Signalling importance

Many states are utilizing fines to enforce isolation directives, with some even deploying geo-tracking to monitor the movements of citizens.  The researchers suggest such approaches send a strong signal as to the seriousness of the directive, although it’s not clear that punitive measures alone are enough to encourage compliance.

It’s important for officials to accept the economic and psychological costs associated with self-isolation, especially over the longer-term, and therefore deploy softer measures to encourage compliance.  The research highlights how despite policies designed to mitigate these costs, people will nonetheless likely be worse off as a result.

The study reminds us that, just as Witty said, people are likely to suffer from social isolation fatigue the longer things drag on, and policy makers need to be sensible if they are to achieve compliance for long enough periods to ensure health systems can cope with the most serious cases as they arise.