Social distancing has been the predominant form of defense in the battle against the coronavirus, with society transforming itself in a bid to ensure people are able to keep a sufficient distance from one another to prevent the virus from spreading.
The measure has had a huge impact on our ways of life, but new research from the University of Warwick suggests its a measure that will be with us for some time to come. The paper argues for a cautious and measured approach to lifting restrictions, such as social distancing, to ensure the most vulnerable members of society remain healthy.
A safe distance
The researchers developed a mathematical model that was calibrated using the age distribution of covid-19 cases, alongside all those hospitalized and dying from the disease. This allowed them to forecast the short and long-term impact of the lifting of various lockdown measures.
The model suggests that a relaxation in social distancing guidelines could result in a significant resurgence in infections. The researchers warn that a second wave of infections could be worse than the first, and healthcare systems could struggle to cope.
A better approach would see the release of strict measures on a regional basis, based in part on ICU bed occupancy and results of the long tail of the epidemic, but this might not occur until the second half of 2021.
“Our model predicts that, if significant relaxation of social distancing measures was introduced in May, the UK would have experienced a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 and the health service would be overwhelmed by a second epidemic wave,” the researchers say.
Scenario planning
The researchers simulated a number of different scenarios to try and gauge the impact different approaches to social distancing might have, both in terms of the number of people requiring inpatient and critical care, and those who ultimately die of the virus.
These scenarios included reducing adherence to lockdown rules; continued shielding for older age groups with a relaxation for younger people; the use of regional social distancing measures in response to local ICU capacity.
“To prevent this second wave, we require strategies in which the social distancing measures are relaxed slowly, either gradually across the entire population or by targeting different regions or age-groups,” the researchers say. “Ultimately, the scenario which minimizes deaths from COVID-19 requires long-term social distancing until a vaccine can be delivered.”
Suffice to say, this is a hugely complex time and the researchers accept that they are very much learning as they go, but they believe that their modelling will be valuable as we take tentative steps to return to some kind of normality without endangering lives.
“The COVID-19 pandemic is the largest event that we have been involved with in our careers, and we are keen to do anything that we can to help to provide advice that will help to control the spread of disease and to protect the most vulnerable members of society,” they conclude.
