As society ages, we’re having to have difficult conversations to ensure that the extra years we have are enjoyable ones rather than a blight on us, our loved ones, and society as a whole.  New research from ILASA suggests that many Europeans are underestimating the number of years they may have left, which has costly implications for how they plan their life.

Decisions around health, work, finances, and living arrangements are all key in our latter years, and having a reasonable idea as to the likely length of our life is key to making good decisions.  If our estimates are significantly wide of the mark, then it can lead to financial strife and poor mental health.

The researchers utilized data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), which was undertaken across nine European countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Sweden, Spain, and Switzerland) between 2004 and 2015 and consists of men and women aged between 60 and 90.

Life expectancy

The researchers analyzed the life expectancy expectations of people compared with their actual life expectancy.  The results suggest one common factor across countries, time, and gender, is that we tend to significantly underestimate the number of years we have left, with this particularly so for women.  This amounts to around three years difference on average.

Of course, subjectively, men and women tend to have the same views on life expectancy, but women usually live longer, hence the discrepancy.  This matters, however, as previous work has shown that women can often have a higher proportion of unhealthy life than men.  Indeed, the researchers believe this may be guiding the perceptions of women in terms of their life expectancy.

The data also reveals that our estimates seem to be getting better, as in 2004, there was a 5 year gap between expectations and reality, with the gap for men shrinking to just 4 months by 2015.  The researchers believe this could be due to a growing focus on healthy lifestyles, such as reduced alcohol and tobacco consumption and better diets.

“The issues we highlight in this paper imply a need for adequate policies that will lead to a decrease in the downward bias people have in terms of their self-perceived life expectancy. These policies could be directed towards further improvement of information about health-related issues, so individuals will be able to construct realistic views about their health status and hence gain a more realistic view on their remaining life span. Since women have a larger bias than men, it might even be appropriate to consider gender-related policy aspects,” the researchers conclude.