The media, and especially new media, have a tendency to pounce on any degree of uncertainty in a statement or prediction, and use that to cast doubt on its validity.  That’s a problem as the reality is that few predictions are ever certain, with most various levels of probability, complete with assumptions and limitations.

New research from the University of Cambridge suggests that the long held belief that explaining this ‘noise’ in data and decision making doesn’t have to undermine the message and confuse the audience.  What’s more, this can even work in highly contentious topics, such as climate change or immigration.

“Estimated numbers with major uncertainties get reported as absolutes,” the researchers say.  “This can affect how the public views risk and human expertise, and it may produce negative sentiment if people end up feeling misled.”

Reporting uncertainty

The researchers tested a number of approaches to reporting a story, with various levels of ‘closeness’ to the truth, in a statistical sense at least, to test how closely they could represent the uncertainty of the issue without harming trustworthiness.

In total, nearly 6,000 participants were shown stories hosted on the BBC News website, with uncertainty reflected in the headline in various ways.  The best results appeared when the figure was framed as an estimate, with a numerical range then given to highlight how the estimate had been derived.  For instance, “…the unemployment rate rose to an estimated 3.9% (between 3.7%-4.1%)”.

This way of framing the data saw an increasing in the understanding of the data, and that it had a degree of uncertainty in it, with no diminishment in trust in the data itself, or indeed those who produced the data or reported it.

“We hope these results help to reassure all communicators of facts and science that they can be more open and transparent about the limits of human knowledge,” the researchers say. “We are committed to building trust in evidence at a time when it is frequently called into question. This study provides helpful guidance on ensuring informative statistics are credibly communicated to the public.”

It should be said, that the general attitude towards what was being reported still mattered in terms of how the facts were viewed, the openness about the uncertainty inherent in the data didn’t reduce people’s trust in either the data or their source.

“We recommend that journalists and those producing data give people the fuller picture,” the researchers conclude.  “If a number is an estimate, let them know how precise that estimate is by putting a minimum and maximum in brackets afterwards.”