The lockdown measures imposed to try and slow the spread of Covid-19 have caused undoubted strain around the world.  The extent of this strain, and the repercussions of it, is highlighted by a new study from Queen Mary University of London, which highlights how lockdowns in Africa have increased the likelihood of riots, violence and food looting.

The research covers some 24 countries from across Africa, with data on monthly food prices and real-time conflict reported via the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).  The data was captured from January 2015 through to May 2020 to provide a good baseline to work from.

The data revealed that while the social distancing measures and lockdown instructions have largely resulted in the spread of coronavirus being slowed, they have had an impact on the rise in social unrest caused by the threats to livelihoods.

Social side effects

The data suggests that social distancing measures have had relatively little impact upon social unrest, but this has not been the case with the stricter lockdown measures introduced.  These appear to have increased the chances of riots and food-related conflicts across Africa.

The main driver for these changes was the change in food prices caused by the pandemic, with the violence especially prominent in areas where rebel groups often attempted to appropriate land from civilians during shocks to food supplies.

The data suggests that riots were also less common in countries that had more robust welfare and anti-poverty policies, with these countries also less likely to experience violence against civilians or food-related conflicts.  It’s not a picture that can easily be rectified with overseas aid, as this can often do more harm than good.

“The literature has offered quite mixed findings on whether aid and anti-poverty projects can reduce the probability of reducing conflict,” the researchers explain. “These results suggest that conditional-cash-transfers can be successful in reducing conflicts. Countries with a broader net of COVID-19 economic support, with more initiatives, are reducing the most the probability of experiencing conflicts and associated fatalities.”

Of the countries that have adopted welfare policies to support people during Covid-19, roughly 70% have chosen to deploy cash-transfers, with another 30% providing relief via the payment of utility bills.  Very few have adopted the kind of labor initiatives seen in developed countries.

“As the lockdowns start to ease, the support available to vulnerable people needs to continue, and should also include support for the large informal labor market,” the researchers conclude. “This should be a key priority especially considering nearly 277 million people in Africa, one in every five, were already suffering from severe food insecurity right before the pandemic.”