A few years ago, mining Google for insights into our behaviors seemed to be a valuable means of predicting societal trends ahead of other, more traditional sources.  Google Flu Trends was perhaps the best example of this, but the subsequent doubt placed on the reliability of the method has seen a reduction in applications in recent years.

Alas, a team from Columbia University suggests it can still be valuable, as their research into searches during Covid-19 provides insights into the mental health of the nation.  The study shows that searches related to things such as financial difficulty and disaster relief rose considerably in March and April, while searches for suicide decreased.  While this may appear to be good news, the researchers caution that financial distress is often a precursor to suicide, so this early trend may have a sting in the tail.

“The scale of the increase in Google searches related to financial distress and disaster relief during the early months of the pandemic was remarkable, so this finding is concerning,” the researchers say.

Early warning

Given the scale of the disruption caused by the pandemic, there have been numerous studies into the mental health of people during Covid-19.  Assessing the risk of suicide is often difficult, however, due to the lag time in mortality data that’s available to us.

Previous research suggests that suicide rates often fall in the immediate aftermath of national disasters, but then rise several months later.  The researchers wanted to see if there was any patterns emerging in Google search results that might provide us with an early warning of the mental health risks ahead.

The researchers analyzed Google Trends data from March 3rd to April 19th to monitor changes in searches for 18 search terms that are strongly linked to suicide and suicide risk factors.

“We didn’t have a clear hypothesis about whether there would be an increase in suicide-related queries during this period of time, but we anticipated a national sense of community during the pandemic that might mitigate suicidal behavior in the short term,” the researchers say.

Signs of trouble

There are numerous signs that someone is struggling with their mental health, and the researchers found a significant increase in searches for things related to financial distress, such as the loss of work, and more overtly for the national Disaster Distress Helpline.

“It seems as though individuals are grappling with the immediate stresses of job loss and isolation and are reaching out to crisis services for help, but the impact on suicidal behavior hasn’t yet manifested,” the researchers explain. “Generally, depression can take longer to develop, whereas panic attacks may be a more immediate reaction to job loss and having to deal with emotionally charged events amidst the social isolation of the pandemic.”

The researchers highlight how the social distancing measures that have been widely adopted to slow the spread of the virus contribute to loneliness and exacerbate preexisting mental illnesses, which are known suicide risk factors.

It’s hoped that the research will provide the insight required to ensure that mental health and crisis services receive the funding and resources required to cope with what is expected to be an increase in demand during this period.

“The current findings give us insight into how people have been dealing with the immediate emotional and financial effects of the pandemic,” the researchers conclude. “Encouragingly, individuals who Google terms related to suicide are directed to the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline. We are hoping that accessing this crisis service may ameliorate suicide risk among the individuals who have Googled suicide-related terms.”