Recent research from Cambridge University’s Centre for the Future of Democracy highlighted the waning faith in governments across the western world.

“Across the globe, democracy is in a state of malaise,” the researchers say. “We find that dissatisfaction with democracy has risen over time, and is reaching an all-time global high, in particular in developed countries.”

New research from the London School of Economics and Political Science highlights how this loss of faith is particularly strong among the young, whose experience during the pandemic is likely to last them a lifetime.

Impressionable years

The research suggests that when we experience something like a pandemic during our youth, we’re less likely to have faith in political institutions for many years to come, with a correspondingly negative attitude towards elections.

The researchers looked at responses to the Gallup World Polls from 2006 to 2018 alongside any pandemics that have occurred since 1970.  In total, they assessed responses from 750,000 people from 142 countries.

The data showed that among those with the highest exposure to epidemics, they were 7.2% less likely to have confidence in the fairness of elections, and 5.2% less likely to have confidence in their government.  These figures were found to endure for the remainder of their lives.

“Trust and confidence in government are important for the capacity of a society to organize an effective collective response to an epidemic,” the researchers say. “Yet there is also the possibility that experiencing an epidemic can negatively affect an individual’s confidence in political institutions and trust in political leaders, with negative implications for this collective capacity.”

Democratic decline

Worryingly, this decline was especially pronounced in democracies, with governments perceived to be weaker during any outbreak were also more likely to suffer from a decline in public trust.

“We have shown that this negative effect is large and persistent,” the researchers continue. “Its largest and most enduring impact is on the attitudes of individuals who are in their impressionable late-adolescent and early-adult years when an epidemic breaks out.”

The young are most susceptible to this, with their impressionable years well known to be when key values and norms are formed.  The authors worry that should such a decline in trust persist throughout young people’s lives, that it will fundamentally undermine not only democracy, but the ability of governments to respond to any future crises that may emerge.

“The implications of our findings are disturbing. Imagine that more trust in government is important for effective containment, but that failure of containment harms trust in government,” the researchers conclude. “One can envisage a scenario where low levels of trust allow an epidemic to spread, and where the spread of the epidemic reduces trust in government still further, hindering the ability of the authorities to contain future epidemics and address other social problems.”