The last few years have seen numerous bouts of social unrest around the world, with protest movements such as the Gilet Jaunes typifying the unhappiness portions of society have with life at the moment.  Those protests have largely been subsumed by the COVID-19 pandemic that has swept the world, but new research from Bocconi suggests that these and other protests are going to flourish after the pandemic, as a fertile ground has been created for conflicts to arise.

The researchers assessed 57 epidemics from the past, ranging all the way back to the Black Death in the 14th century.  Their assessment showed that during the pandemic the status quo tends to be consolidated, with incumbent governments bolstered.  Once the pandemic subsides, however, there tends to follow a sharp increase in social instability.

Seeds of conflict

The researchers explain that during the pandemic period itself, it’s relatively rare for revolts that aren’t connected to the pandemic itself to unfold.  The pandemic does, however, sow the seeds of conflict, with various government conspiracies, targeting of immigrants, and the poor often singled out as possible causes of the pandemic.

“Overall, the historical evidence shows that the epidemics display a potential disarranging effect on civil society along three dimensions,” the researchers explain. “First, the policy measures tend to conflict with the interest of people, generating a dangerous friction between society and institutions. Second, to the extent that an epidemic impacts differently on society in terms of mortality and economic welfare, it may exacerbate inequality. Third, the psychological shock can induce irrational narratives on the causes and the spread of the disease, which may result in social or racial discrimination and even xenophobia.”

Across the sample of epidemics, there were 39 rebellions in the 10 years before an epidemic, and 71 in the 10 years after them.  For the time being, however, the various restrictions imposed by governments on citizens are likely to ensure that a lid is kept on any discontent, and the governments are kept in power as a result.  It would appear to be, however, the calm before the storm.