That the world is in the midst of tremendous change is hard to dispute, and while the events of 2020 have thrown many a prediction out of the window, Wharton’s Mauro Guillen has not been put off extending his glance out to 2030 in his latest book, “2030: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything,” in which he discusses everything from the aging population to climate change.
Guillen argues that far from sending us on a completely different path, the pandemic has largely just accelerated the changes we were already seeing. There have been a few exceptions, however, with birth rates likely to fall as people wait to see the economic fallout from the pandemic, and the previously unstoppable growth of cities likely to slow, especially in the western world.
Guillen also argues that sub-Saharan Africa is likely to experience significant growth in the coming decade, due in part to the demographics across the continent, but also because the biggest cities are establishing a growing middle class. It will contribute to Africa soon becoming the second most populous region in the world.
The book inevitably covers automation, but it’s a topic that has been covered elsewhere, so was not especially new or unique, but, interestingly, Guillen is extremely bullish about the prospects of blockchain and cryptocurrencies in the coming decade.
“If cryptocurrencies are just a substitute for the money that governments issue, then I don’t think we’re going to get too far because our regulators are always against cryptocurrencies as a competitor for legal tender,” he says. “But if we add other functions or other uses to those digital tokens — like if they will help us vote, keep politicians in check or provide incentives for people to save the environment — then there is a bright future ahead for digital tokens. So instead of digital currency, I would say digital tokens, which would include a currency component to them.”
Tackling inequality
Another aspect of modern life that appears to have been exacerbated by the pandemic is wealth and health inequality. In many ways, this is not surprising, as inequality often emerges due to differing abilities to cope with change.
Obviously the presidential election will have a big say in how this issue is tackled, but with recent research suggesting that social unrest is more likely after a pandemic, the issues that have bubbled over during 2020 are likely to continue for a little while yet.
The rifts caused by inequality could be gravest between the generations, with Guillen arguing that it is increasingly unlikely that children today will enjoy a better life than their parents. He cites the COVID recession coming so hot on the heels of the financial crash of 2008 as an example of the rough ride Millennials have enjoyed in the labor market.
Worryingly, Guillen believes such things can be solved via international collaboration between governments, at a time when the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk report has highlighted the detioration in international collaboration for a few years.
It’s probably fair to say that any exploration of the future is as much a conversation starter as the final word on the matter, and in that sense the book provides a number of interesting start points for readers to explore more.
