Whether at a national or a global level, concerns about too many people seem to have existed for a very long time, with these concerns typically rooted in fear that resources will be unable to cope with the demands placed upon them.
A new analysis, published in The Lancet, suggests that these fears may be unfounded, with the global population set to shrink in around thirty years time. The study predicts that by 2100, not only will fertility have fallen from 1.8 to 1.5, the working age population of the world will change considerably, with immigration likely to be required to sustain things in many developed countries.
The model goes on to predict macroeconomic changes, stating that China is set to achieve the number 1 spot by 2035, but the United States will regain the lead in 2098, albeit under the proviso that they have a more liberal attitude towards immigration.
“Continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population,” the authors say. “This study provides governments of all countries an opportunity to start rethinking their policies on migration, workforces and economic development to address the challenges presented by demographic change.”
Population changes
The study suggests that by 2100, fertility rates will be below the replacement rate in 183 of 195 countries, which will contribute to a fall in global population to 8.8 billion from its peak of 9.7 billion in 2064. Indeed, so dramatic will the decline be in countries such as Japan and Italy, that they may see population numbers fall by 50%.
The findings contrast with other projections from the likes of the United Nations Population Division, which suggest continued global population growth. Far from the biggest problem being one of over-population, the paper argues that the biggest concern will be the dwindling working age population coupled with the high burden of caring for an ageing population.
This demographic shift is likely to see an estimated 2.37 billion people over 65 years old by 2100, versus just 1.7 billion people aged under 20, which will put a significant strain on the workforce if things are not changed, as the population shift will begin to put pronounced pressure on GDP growth rates that could result in global economic power struggles.
For instance, the paper states that in 2017, the global ratio of non-working adults to workers was approximately 0.8, but that this was due to change to 1.16 by 2100 if labor force participation does not change in that time. It’s a situation that the researchers believe will make reversing population decline, and especially working population decline, a key policy concern for nations as the century progresses.
“While population decline is potentially good news for reducing carbon emissions and stress on food systems, with more old people and fewer young people, economic challenges will arise as societies struggle to grow with fewer workers and taxpayers, and countries’ abilities to generate the wealth needed to fund social support and health care for the elderly are reduced,” the authors say.
Shrinking workforce
The economic impact of fewer working-age adults could be significant. The authors believe that the recovery of the United States economy towards the end of the century would largely be fuelled by migrants, who would sustain the American workforce. This is because China could run into significant demographic problems by then, with its working age population declining from 950 million in 2017 to just 357 million by 2100.
The authors believe that these population changes are also likely to see Sub-Saharan Africa grow in power and importance on the global scale, with Nigeria predicted to be the only country in the top 10 most populated nations to grow their working-age population over the course of the century, with this playing a major role in their economic fortunes.
This is in stark contrast to traditional economic powers, such as Spain and Italy, whose population challenges underpin a significant decline in both countries economic fortunes. This decline could be mitigated with liberal immigration policies, but, of course, these are not evident in many countries at the moment, although the report suggests Australia, Canada and the United States will be able to maintain their working-age populations through net immigration, at least for the time being.
“For high-income countries with below-replacement fertility rates, the best solutions for sustaining current population levels, economic growth, and geopolitical security are open immigration policies and social policies supportive of families having their desired number of children,” the authors say. “However, a very real danger exists that, in the face of declining population, some countries might consider policies that restrict access to reproductive health services, with potentially devastating consequences. It is imperative that women’s freedom and rights are at the top of every government’s development agenda.”
