The COVID landscape is nothing if not uncertain, with the pandemic largely forcing us to take things on a day-by-day basis.  Previous research has shown that periods of such uncertainty are typically accompanied by higher levels of lobbying as organizations attempt to hedge the risks they face.

Obviously, lobbyists have a clear endpoint in mind, but political parties also secure significant support from “elite donors”, who new research from Stanford defines as those minority of backers who give candidates $200 or more in any given electoral cycle.

The researchers surveyed over 1,150 such donors, who between them donated over $17 million to election campaigns since 2008.  The analysis revealed that regardless of whether they were Republicans or Democrats, these elite donors would consistently hold more extreme views than the average Republican or Democrat.

There were, however, areas where donors from both sides agreed, such as in support of globalization, free trade, and immigration, with donors for both parties more supportive than the average voter in their respective parties.

“Republican donors are not pro-free trade or pro-immigration per se, just more pro-free trade and pro-immigration than Republican voters. I will say, though, since 2016, when Trump became the nominee, Republican donors are more anti-free trade than ever,” the researchers explain. “Democratic donors are the most pro-globalization group in the sample.”

Polarization

The researchers believe that the influence these donors are having on their parties may go some way towards explaining why politics has become so polarized in recent years, as parties look to implement policies that appease donors more than the electorate.

Indeed, on economic issues, the data found a wider gap between Republican donors and Republican voters than between Republican and Democratic voters.  A similar gap emerged for Democratic donors and voters on social issues.

“Oftentimes,” the researchers explain, “the Republican Party pushes very economically conservative policies that, according to polling data, Republican voters don’t support. And if you look at the Democratic Party, its politicians are talking about social and cultural policies that most of its base does not support—the regular voters in that party are much more socially moderate than the elite donors.”

This is likely to result in policy decisions being made after the presidential election that runs counter to the wishes of many among the electorate.  For instance, if Republicans gain control then they are likely to push economically conservative policies that aren’t popular with voters, whereas if Biden wins, things like Medicare for all and climate change measures have a good chance of passing.