A common argument made by those who protest against immigration, especially of the undocumented kind, is that it leads to an increase in crime in the areas the migrants eventually reside.  It’s an issue explored in new research from the University of Buffalo, with little apparent evidence that undocumented immigrants make any difference to crime.  Indeed, in some cases, they might even cause crime to fall.

“Even after estimating the undocumented immigrant population in US metropolitan areas in two different ways, we found that undocumented immigrants had no significant effect on violent crime and actually had a significant negative effect on property crime,” the researchers explain.  “This suggests that increases in the undocumented population is accompanied by decreases, on average, in property crime in US metropolitan areas.”

Impact on crime

The research builds upon previous work by the team which found no link between immigration patterns and crime in 200 US metropolitan areas over a 40 year period.  Indeed, while there was no apparent increase in crime due to immigration, the researchers did find increases in economic growth and cultural vitality.

Of course, this is not an isolated study, and others exploring the same topic also found no real connection, but the researchers believe their work stands out because it focuses on undocumented immigration, which has previously been overlooked due to the difficulties in understanding the size of this population.

The data was pulled from the Pew Research Center and the Migration Policy Institute, and this cross-sectional data allowed for a one-time, one-year snapshot.  By using two different estimates of undocumented immigrants the researchers were able to test their hypothesis thoroughly, and the same results emerged both times.

“Because these data [in the current study] are not longitudinal, it’s much more difficult to establish causality than when you have data that lets you look at an effect over time, but the findings are still useful because of the undocumented measures compared in the study,” the researchers explain.  “There is a serious body of high quality scholarship among those who study immigration and crime whose work in general simply does not find this overwhelming negative portrait of immigrants that has been painted in the current political climate.”

There remains huge misunderstanding in public discussions around the role immigration, and even undocumented immigration, plays in society, and while it’s equally true that seldom does the public discussion has an evidence-based heart to it, it is nonetheless important that we grow that evidence base so that policies are hopefully well informed.

“Studying the link between immigration and crime is important because it’s one of the factors that is misinterpreted in American society,” the researchers conclude. “The full context of immigration is complex, with competing narratives and scholarship.”