This year has seen vaccines for the Covid-19 virus rolled out across much of the world, suggesting an end may finally be on the horizon for the pandemic that has plagued the world for the past year.  The road to recovery remains in the distance, however, and in the meantime, we will still require measures to stop the spread of the virus.

New research from the Rotman School explores the effectiveness of Covid-19 control measures in 40 jurisdictions across the United States, examining not only the medical effectiveness of the measures but also the social and economic costs.

The paper highlights the significant social costs that need to be incurred if the virus is to be controlled.  Indeed, in many jurisdictions, measures with lesser social impact, such as the cancellation of public events and restrictions of larger gatherings, were wholly inadequate.

“The socially tolerable core policies alone are meaningful and significant, but insufficient by themselves for preventing escalating growth in infections in 90% of the jurisdictions analyzed,” the researchers say.

Firmer measures

Instead, for the spread of the virus to be slowed to a meaningful extent, more socially intolerable measures are required, including closures of schools and workplaces, and stay-at-home orders.

“Altogether, the analysis indicates that, in all but a few highly compliant jurisdictions, relatively significant social costs must be incurred to reduce COVID growth below zero,” the researchers suggest.

The researchers hope that their work will provide a better understanding not only of the effectiveness of various measures, but also the likelihood of compliance.

“The model points to significant opportunities for cultivating deeper understanding of the drivers of compliance and of variation in the impact of policies, which are potentially rewarding topics for future research,” they conclude.