It’s common in politics for promising young candidates to be given soft and eminently winnable seats to kick start their political careers. Research from the University of Exeter suggests, however, that this is not something that is often afforded to minority candidates, especially if it’s perceived that the non-white appearance of the candidate might actually prevent the win.
“This combination of public opinion and party strategy is one of the most significant blockages to electing parliaments which fully reflect the ethnic diversity of their populations, and works in tandem with and drives other exclusionary forces,” the researchers say. “Though much research has focused on potential voter discrimination, focusing on the behaviour of voters alone misses any discrimination which might occur prior to elections.”
Reflecting society
The researchers explain that if UK politicians were reflective of the population as a whole, there would be 95 non-white MPs, instead of the 65 that currently sit in parliament.
The candidate selection process for the Conservative and Labour parties is traditionally handled by the local branches of each party, with the applicants then vetted and approved via a national process.
The researchers used regression analysis to explore the relationship between public opinion and election candidates since 1997. The ethnic minority status of each candidate was determined by online photos and videos of candidates, with the “winnability” of seats determined by whether the party already held the seat or required no more than a 5% swing to capture it.
The local public opinion on diversity was then measured using the answers on race and immigration from the British Election Study, the European Social Survey, the British Social Attitudes survey, and the European and World Values studies.
Gradual improvement
The number of ethnic minority candidates rose gradually during the study period, with the biggest jump occurring between 2010 and 2015. Opportunities appeared greatest in the Labour Party, with more ethnic minority candidates chosen in four out of the last seven elections, including the two latest elections in 2017 and 2019.
There was a clear geographic divide, with London far ahead of other parts of the country in terms of opening up seats for minority representation. By contrast, seats in the North East, Wales, the South West or the East Midlands were far less representative.
This is perhaps because attitudes towards immigration in London are far more positive than in other parts of the country, with the North East and Wales less positive than the average for the country as a whole.
“Sadly this analysis suggests opportunities for BAME candidates wanting to stand for parliament are not equal, and processes for selecting candidates do not treat everyone fairly. This means electoral success is too often biased away from too many,” the researchers conclude.
“Political parties are charged with being ‘gatekeepers’ to representation, and while they ultimately provide the vast majority of representational opportunities, they can also create punitive pressures on prospective candidates from ‘non-traditional’ backgrounds seeking to become representatives.”
