Earlier this year I looked at the possible changes cities might face as we begin to return to a degree of normality after the Covid-19 pandemic.  The piece was generally optimistic that the things that made cities so popular before the pandemic would endure afterward.

Its optimism not shared by recent research by the OECD’s Center for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities, and recruitment site Indeed.  The study revealed that the number of remote working roles in London grew throughout the pandemic, with particular growth in high-paying opportunities at the expense of lower-paid service-based jobs, which tend to require more face-to-face contact with customers.

A permanent shift

The researchers believe that this trend could mark a permanent shift towards mass home-working, thus harming the long-term prospects of the city after Covid recedes.

They find that there is a higher share of jobs offering remote working in the capital than elsewhere in the UK, with this predominantly due to the nature of these jobs.  The data shows that while there was widespread growth in remote working as Covid-related restrictions were introduced, they endured in London even as they eased elsewhere.

“Our research shows that postings for highly-paid remote jobs in cities like London have been more resilient to the pandemic than lower-paid job opportunities in services, which not only risks a difficult adjustment for some urban workers but may aggravate urban inequality,” the researchers say.

Of course, commuting from afar remains highly problematic during Covid, so it would surely need to be taken into account for jobs in the capital, especially given that before Covid it was estimated that around a million people commuted into London for work each day, with over 100,000 into the Canary Wharf financial district alone.  As that isn’t an option for many, if employers wish to attract this talent during the pandemic then remote working is the only feasible way of doing so.

Historic claims

That shouldn’t suggest, however, that this is going to endure when commuting becomes an option again, which appears to be the leap that the researchers are taking.

“While the pandemic is unlikely to eliminate the huge agglomeration benefits and amenities that have drawn people and jobs into big cities for decades, the trends COVID-19 has initiated might weaken those cities’ appeal to some workers, some of whom could already be considering quitting places like London or not returning,” they say.

There is already growing fatigue with full-time remote working, and the appeal of cities will rebound once the things that make them so attractive, such as the aforementioned agglomeration benefits and amenities, and feasible with the re-opening of mass transit.  I would be amazed if the current remote working trends endured at their current level once the option to reverse them is available again.