Unemployment is a particular concern during the Covid pandemic, but while this has obvious implications in areas such as financial and mental wellbeing, new research from the University of Oxford highlights that it could also affect democracy itself.
The researchers build on long-held assumptions that unemployment impacts voter turnout, but the research shows that even if we’ve been unemployed in the past, this still affects participation, especially if the unemployment was traumatic.
“Losing a job, even if you get another one, causes long-term scars to family life, health and income,” the researchers say. “This study shows past unemployment can also determine if someone decides to cast their vote or not – and this affects turnout and election results.”
Chances of voting
The results suggest that a period of unemployment is likely to reduce our chances of voting by around 9%. In areas where unemployment is rare, this rises to 13%, which the researchers believe reflects the stigma associated with job loss. In areas where unemployment is more common, the chances of voting fall by just 6%.
“Past unemployment experiences not only shape lasting difficulties in the labour market and in the family, health, and political trust domains but also depress electoral participation,” the authors write. “The scar effects of unemployment may trigger a circle of cumulative disadvantage over the life course, with socio-economic vulnerabilities shaping political marginality.”
It’s this stigma that appears to be key, as losing our job can dent our trust in the political system, especially if you lose your job while those around you appear to have kept theirs. This can increase your sense of loneliness and isolation, and so you withdraw from the political process. This isn’t the case if you’re part of many who have lost your job, as you’re more likely to blame the government and unify with those around you to try and change things. It’s a phenomenon the researchers believe can shed light on recent political events around the world.
“We find that the scar effects of unemployment on electoral participation can be powerful across a range of geographical contexts in Europe,” they say. “This finding is particularly salient in the context of close elections, when crucial electoral outcomes can be tilted by a few percentage points. These close outcomes include the US Presidential Elections of 2000, 2016, and 2020, the British General Elections of 2017, and the Italian National Elections of 2006 and 2013.”
Not only does the stigma associated with unemployment affect whether people will vote, but also how they will interpret election results.
“Past unemployment can trigger a barrage of social and economic disadvantages. It can scar a person’s family life, ability to find future work, physical and mental health and trust in politics and politicians,” the researchers conclude. “But this research shows for the first time that it’s the amount of stigma felt, rather than the actual hardship, which has the biggest effect on election turnout. The greater the stigma, the more likely the withdrawal from the democratic process.”
