With the Covid pandemic giving rise to various conspiracy theories, one might imagine that it has also been a fertile period for populist parties that often pander to such mindsets. Alas, a recent study from the University of Cambridge reveals that support for populists has fallen across 109 countries since 2020.
The authors believe that this signals a turn away from the populist wave that was typified by the Brexit vote and the support for Donald Trump. They argue that the mishandling of the pandemic by populist leaders together with a desire for stable competence has contributed to the decline.
Technocratic support
The threat posed by the pandemic has been so grave that it has resulted in growing support for more technocratic leadership, with this support corresponding with increases in trust in people like scientists and civil servants. This appears to have resulted in the populist wave of the last decade reaching its peak.
“Electoral support for populist parties has collapsed around the world in a way we don’t see for more mainstream politicians. There is strong evidence that the pandemic has severely blunted the rise of populism,” the researchers explain.
While most political leaders saw a boost in their ratings during the early months of the pandemic as societies attempted to rally behind their governments, this support has dwindled away throughout the remainder of the pandemic. The worst performances have been seen by populist leaders, who have seen their approval ratings fall by around 10%.
This has translated into support at the polling station, with the number of people intending to vote for a populist party in Europe falling by 11%. This was in contrast to more mainstream parties, who typically saw a rise in their support the longer the pandemic went on.
Handling the crisis
This largely appears to be a result of the crisis, and our desire for competent leaders to help tackle it. Ratings for government handling of the pandemic were 11% lower on average in countries led by a populist leader than those with centrist governments, with this gap widening the longer the pandemic went on.
“The pandemic fostered a sense of shared purpose that may have reduced the political polarization we’ve seen over the last decade,” the researchers explain. “This could help explain why populist leaders are struggling to mobilize support.”
The authors also believe that some of the key messages from populists are losing their appeal, such as the notion that corrupt elites are destroying nations. Indeed, even among those who still support such notions, their support weakened during the pandemic, with this shift especially strong among the over-55s.
Not all positive
Despite the decline in support for populism, however, there has not been a corresponding boost in support for liberal democracies. The authors suggest that the poor performance of populists while in office has contributed to declining support for democracy in general.
This has resulted in a growth in support for technocratic sources of authority, with non-political experts trusted to take what will hopefully be the best decisions.
“Satisfaction with democracy has recovered only slightly since the post-war nadir of 2019, and is still well below the long-term average,” the researchers say. “Some of the biggest declines in democratic support during the pandemic were seen in Germany, Spain and Japan—nations with large elderly populations particularly vulnerable to the virus.”
