Research Reveals How Quickly Gentrification Occurs

One senses that cities have an uneasy relationship with the gentrification of districts, as while the improvement in these areas is almost certainly welcome, there are also obvious concerns that the rising house prices that accompany the changes will be pricing poorer residents out of the region.

Research from the University of Cambridge suggests those concerns are valid and that rising house prices can change the personality of entire cities within just a few years, with this change occurring not just because wealthier people move in, but also among existing residents.

Changing personalities

The researchers tracked around two million residents of nearly 200 American cities to understand the changes in their personality over a nine-year period, before comparing the results with changes in the local housing market in each city.

The analysis revealed that even a $50 rise in the average house price resulted in a significant rise in the “openness” of residents.  The researchers suggest that this characteristic is closely linked to things such as creativity and curiosity, and so is generally regarded in a positive way.

This is especially so in cities, such as San Francisco and New York, where openness levels were already very high compared to the rest of the country.  The researchers argue that house prices have often reflected the availability of amenities, such as sports venues, parks, good schools, and restaurants.  They believe that such amenities inevitably appeal to people who are more open-minded, which helps to drive such a mindset within a city.

“Theorists going back to Karl Marx have argued that economic development drives national shifts in personality and culture,” the researchers say.  “We can now see how rapidly those changes occur in smaller and more nimble communities such as cities, where major cultural shifts can be experienced in just a few short years, rather than decades or centuries.”

Greater openness

This personality shift also matters politically, as openness is typically associated with more liberal values and support for liberal parties.  It’s also strongly linked to rises in entrepreneurial activity and higher socioeconomic status.

The researchers used data modeling to ensure socio-economic status was not influencing their findings at an individual level by incorporating both education and social class into their calculations.

They identified two key ways in which house prices, and their associated amenities, prompted a shift in urban personality.  The first of these was “selective migration”, which is when certain types of people are attracted to an area by the local culture there.  The second is “social acculturation”, which is when individual personalities change through exposure to new opportunities, such as in different cuisines or a burgeoning arts scene.

The results show not only that significant changes in personality can occur, but also that the changes occur pretty quickly.

“Substantial personality shifts within cities can and do occur within a couple of years,” the researchers say.  “Cities are magnets for certain types of people, even as they become increasingly unaffordable—particularly for young people. These cultural changes may go on to affect the personality of long-term residents.”

“Research has shown that openness is related to economic resilience, creative capital and innovation, as well as liberal politics and arts,” they continue. “The geographical clustering of personality reinforces existing social and economic differences across the country. We can see this reflected in contemporary political divisions.”

The researchers cite Pittsburgh as a perfect example of this transition, with the city previously dominated by blue-collar industry before going through a transitional period as a result of the collapse in manufacturing in the 1970s and reemerging as a hub for high-skilled sectors such as medicine and education, which has shifted the nature of the city towards more open-mindedness and youth.

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