Challenging economic circumstances is an obvious driver of migration, so it stands to reason that people who managed to keep their jobs during the Covid pandemic may have been more inclined to stay home rather than move in search of greener pastures.  Research from the University of Birmingham nonetheless highlights the extent of this phenomenon for potential West African migrants.

The researchers highlight how young people in Gambia have a perception of the inequalities in the speed of recovery from the pandemic abroad and at home, but interestingly, this perception does little to impact their desire to migrate.

Instead, the work status of young would-be migrants was found to be more important, as those who managed to keep their jobs during the pandemic seemed more likely to favor staying at home, even if they perceived their home country’s recovery prospects as worse than those elsewhere.

“For a large portion of African youth, the pandemic has fed into an unfortunate cycle of precarious employment and unemployment—in Sub-Saharan Africa, some 50% of young people had no job before COVID-19 struck,” the researchers say.

“Individuals who keep their jobs through the pandemic are less likely to want to move abroad. Would-be migrants who managed to maintain a stable income may seek comfort in familiar contexts; even if they appear worse than alternatives abroad.”

Job insecurity

That’s not to say that the Covid response of governments was irrelevant, of course, and the researchers found that when people did suffer from job insecurity, they may feel more confident when they’re happy with their government’s response to the pandemic.  Indeed, when they trust their government, they were also found to be less likely to want to migrate.  As such, the confidence in one’s personal and local circumstances seemed to be more important than the pull of seemingly wealthier countries.

“COVID-19 has forced citizens to rely on their government. Our findings show how important it is for governments and donors to try to protect jobs in crises,” the researchers explain. “Employment has a unique stabilizing effect, which goes above and beyond the safety net that savings might provide.”

Gambia is an interesting example to study both because it suffered intense economic disruption due to its reliance upon international tourism, and also because it is the highest sender of migrants across the Central Mediterranean route in the region.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated international inequalities to unprecedented levels, as some states had more resources than others to protect their economies and their citizens,” the researchers conclude.

“We show that this widening gap is not necessarily going to drive individuals into insecure and dangerous migration routes. It is reassuring that—even among those who lose their jobs—trust in the local government can foster a significant sense of security and stability at home.”