Traditionally, the perception is that if we are to reduce poverty in parts of the world, then it will also be difficult to tackle climate change as those regions will inevitably increase their economic activity.  A recent paper from the University of Groningen suggests this might not be as bad as it seems as it would probably result in a reduction in the inequality in the carbon footprint between rich and poor nations.

The conclusion arrived after an analysis of data from the Consumption and Poverty Dataset that was developed in partnership with the World Bank.

Twin goals

One of the key UN Sustainable Development Goals is to build a more sustainable future for all.  This includes both eradicating extreme poverty and also reducing carbon emissions.

The World Bank dataset contains 201 different expenditure categories across 116 different countries, which allowed the researchers to cover around 90% of the global population.  This, in turn, allowed them to calculate in precise detail the carbon footprint of expenditure across different groups in each country while also taking account of the poverty level in each country.

“With this information, we were able to calculate what the effect of poverty alleviation on carbon emissions would be when someone would move from an expenditure group below the poverty line to one above it,” the researchers explain.

What’s more, the researchers were also able to calculate the impact of global supply chains on emissions.  This allowed them to examine whether crossing the poverty line in a wealthy country would prompt a larger change in the carbon footprint than it would if achieved in a poorer country.

The results suggest that if we are able to lift one billion or so people out of poverty globally, this would probably result in a rise in global emissions of around 2%.  This is largely due to the significant inequalities in carbon emissions, as the total emissions in the richest 1% of the world are around 50% larger than they are in the poorest 50%.

“In Europe, an average person emits about six tons of carbon per year,” the researchers explain. “But most people in poverty emit less than one ton. And the super-rich of this world has carbon emissions of over one thousand tons.”

As such, the onus for achieving the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement rests on the rich world via both a reduction in their carbon emissions and their consumption of goods.

“Consuming less is the only option,” the researchers conclude. The idea that economic growth can be uncoupled from carbon emissions is unrealistic. “Only a few of the richest countries have achieved this uncoupling from carbon emissions. But there are other limits that we shouldn’t cross either, like biodiversity loss. Technology won’t save the day.”