As Columbia University’s Jason Resnikoff explains in his recent book Labor’s End, the concern around robots taking our jobs has been commonplace at least since the term automation was first coined by Ford in the mid 20th century. While the flurry of stories on the topic seems to have accelerated in recent years, especially since Frey and Osborne’s notorious 2013 study of the topic, the evidence to date is that robots generally haven’t been “taking our jobs” at all.

Research from Duke University adds its voice to the melee, albeit from the angle of whether tax policy incentivizes firms to invest in new machinery. The study found that firms do indeed respond to tax changes by investing in new machinery, but that these investments don’t appear to have any impact on the employee headcount.

Instead, firms typically increase their workforce after making these investments, which is in keeping with previous studies showing that firms that invest in new technologies are typically those that grow, which usually results in a larger workforce rather than a smaller one.

Complementary investment

As such, the research suggests that far from tax policies supporting investment in technology undermining the workforce, the opposite is quite likely to be the case. While there may be some displacement in some areas, on the whole, the message is that investing in technology bolsters the workforce.

As such, the authors believe that fears that technology will replace workers are generally overblown, especially as it was typically roles involved in operating production machinery that saw the biggest gains.

The tax incentives for investment help to underpin strategies for technology-driven growth, with this especially so for firms who have historically had limited access to finance and were therefore constrained in their efforts to grow. The investment seemed to have a clear impact on both output and sales, suggesting that the policy was highly effective.

The results suggest that policies to incentivize the investment in new technologies will have clear benefits both in the productivity of firms and also in the employment of workers. That the results show that these employment gains were especially strong among historically disadvantaged groups gives yet more reason to support such policies.