While recent times have seen considerable concern raised around demographic changes, and especially the falling birth rates across much of the developed world that have coincided with generally aging societies, there remains a sense that these changes aren’t occurring particularly quickly.
Research from Bocconi suggests such an assumption may be misguided and that human population trends are somewhat faster than we imagine. For instance, we often view population changes as taking generations, but recent history has seen how things like the Syrian refugee crisis and the invasion of Ukraine can result in large-scale population movements in a short space of time.
“In general, we can conclude that the currently prevalent ‘slow demography’ perspective is misleading when applied as a general approach to the study of population change,” the author explains.
Migration trends
The researcher shows how migration trends make population change much faster than might otherwise be the case. The study features data from Germany and Italy and underlines the crucial role migratory movements play in determining population dynamics in any country. By better understanding the speed of change, the researchers hope that policymakers can make more informed decisions.
Traditional demographic changes, such as that from high fertility and low life expectancy to lower fertility and higher life expectancy typically unfold over decades and generations. This lengthy time horizon allows demography to be regarded as a “megatrend” that underpins much of our social, political, and economic change.
The paper argues that traditional approaches to population turnover rates often focus on just birth and death rates, which don’t tend to change very rapidly. Indeed, over the past 70 years, the speed of population change has roughly halved. The author proposes a new index, called the migratory share of turnover (MST), which highlights the importance of migratory movement to the traditional population turnover rate (PTR) measure of demographic change.
Driving change
The role of migration in driving demographic change is particularly evident in countries with a higher Human Development Index (HDI), as these countries have likely completed the demographic transition towards a lower fertility rate. Such countries are also more likely to be desirable destinations for migration, which results in migration being responsible for a larger share of population changes.
The paper includes a fine-grained analysis of both migration and population rates in Germany and Italy to show how the economic and political cycles have a significant impact on both MST and population turnout. For instance, in Germany, the generous approach to the Syrian refugee crisis resulted in a significant increase in the MST, whereas in Italy attempts to curb emigration have lowered the importance of migration in the first half of the 20th century.
“By devoting more resources to gathering and analyzing data on population flows, scholars can contribute to our knowledge of demographic trends in a fast-changing population environment,” the author concludes. “At the same time, greater attention to the coevolution of socio-economic factors and demography can help policymakers to make more informed choices.”
