Helping refugees assimilate into a new country can often revolve around their ability to work, especially in fields that they are trained and experienced in. This can often present challenges if credentials are not recognized and people are required to undergo lengthy training in order to “prove” they are worthy of practicing in their adopted home.

Couple this with the need to potentially learn a new language, and it’s clear that the length of time one is thinking of, or indeed permitted to, stay plays a big part in whether such an investment is likely to be made. For instance, when the EU introduced legislation to support Ukrainian refugees, they were provided with a non-bureaucratic one-year permit to allow states to respond rapidly to the enormous crisis. It seems inevitable that many will need, or want, to stay for longer than a year, but the prospects of doing so remain uncertain.

An uncertain future

Research from Bocconi University highlights how important it is for migrants to have certainty about their long-term options if they’re to thrive. The researchers used data gathered on the fate of Turkish immigrants in Germany, as there is decades worth of data on the expected length of stay of immigrants in the country.

For instance, many of the participants in the survey arrived in Germany via guest worker agreements with various southern European countries in the 1960s and 70s. The study found that those immigrants who thought they would stay in Germany permanently were better able to integrate, picked up the language faster, and generally saw greater economic progression than their peers who thought their stay would be temporary.

There was a particular shift in behavior among those who only had short, temporary permits, especially if the chances of extending the permit were uncertain. Those who expected to stay longer would spend money locally, learn the local language, strive to integrate, and generally develop skills specific to the country that improved their chances of success and employment.

This not only benefited the individuals involved via greater earnings and career progression, but also the host country as their tax contributions were higher. When people believe they will stay for longer, however, they are also more demanding about the kind of work they want to accept. What’s more, they’re also more likely to use public services. Long-term migrants are also more likely to have their families with them, who will in turn consume various public services.

Intention to return

The intent to return of migrants is also crucially important in understanding their behavior. For instance, if there is a strong desire to return home, it is more common for money to be sent home to families rather than spent locally. This belief that the stay is limited is also likely to limit any efforts to integrate or invest in things that can help them to do so.

Suffice to say, government decisions around migration are often neither quick nor adaptable, and this can have a significant impact both on the kinds of people that choose to migrate and their actions when they do.

That the researchers were able to show that long-time certainty helped migrants across a wide range of contexts, including refugees and economic migrants, is important to note, however, and hopefully, governments will pay attention when crafting immigration policies that too often seem to be driven more by emotive politics than by evidence.