The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces this year has heaped untold misery on the people of Ukraine, so it is wholly understandable that the international community wants the conflict to end as soon as possible. Research from Stanford Graduate School of Business suggests that the way we attempt to broker peace might actually hamper the prospects for it.
The authors suggest that when we think of peace, we can often believe it to be something in the distant future, which is something they refer to as “construal level theory” (CLT).
“The idea of CLT is that we tend to match our level of reasoning — whether it be concrete thinking or abstract ideation — to our perception of distance,” they explain. “That can mean distance in space, but also in other senses like probability or time.”
Distant future
In other words, we’re more likely to view things in the present in a concrete way and those in the future in more abstract ways. They suggest that this is certainly the case with war, which is one of the most immediate things possible, whereas peace can feel painfully remote.
The researchers found that when the destination is set far into the future, we’re more likely to be confident in the outcome, whether that’s achieving peace or indeed any other form of meaningful, yet difficult, change.
“It’s absolutely fundamental,” they explain. “If you want to create change, you need to clearly distinguish near-term actions from long-term end states.”
It feels right
The researchers believe that this sense that peace is something in the distant future is not necessarily a rational choice but rather something that feels instinctively right. It dictates that while people are certainly not opposed to change, they need to be able to view the potential future in concrete terms, with clear steps towards achieving it so that people can get started right away.
While the study focused on resolving conflict, the researchers believe the ideas extend beyond military conflicts and into any domain in which change occurs.
For instance, when leaders attempt to visualize the future and their solutions to challenges, it’s important that they’re able to do so in a way that resonates with their followers. If they can’t then the desired future can seem too far away and people won’t jump on board as the changes all feel a bit abstract.
