A common accusation among those wishing to reduce immigration levels is that immigrants and their descendants naturally lean leftwards politically, and therefore their arrival makes their host country more liberal. It’s a claim that is examined in a recent study from the University of California, Davis.
“We analyze whether second-generation immigrants have different political preferences relative to observationally identical children of citizens in the host countries,” the researchers explain. “Using data on individual voting behavior in 22 European countries between 2001 and 2017, we characterize each vote on a left-right scale based on the ideological and policy positions of the party receiving the vote.”
Political allegiance
The researchers aim to assess the voting patterns of second-generation immigrants after first controlling for various individual characteristics and the effects of both the origin and destination country. The analysis does indeed suggest that second-generation immigrants do tend to lean leftwards, but only if they migrated into an urban area.
This tendency is also linked to greater support for government policies designed to reduce inequality as well as those that promote multiculturalism and internationalism. What’s more, second-generation immigrants are also less susceptible to the “charms” of populist politicians or their agendas.
“These results have two interesting political implications. First, they suggest that being a second-generation immigrant is a trait that generates some commonality in political views. This group of people could be considered as more sensitive to some issues and messages than the generic population,” the researchers explain. “Second, the specific analysis shows that second-generation immigrants are a pragmatic and policy-oriented group who seem to be swayed more by policy proposals than by ideological affiliation or anti-establishment motives.”
The researchers are at pains to point out, however, that while this trend is not insignificant, it’s unlikely in itself to fundamentally alter the left-right distribution of the electorate in most European countries.
“Even if we project the second-generation immigrant population growing to as large as 20-30% of the total population (comparable to the US at its peak during the 20th century) this will only produce a fraction of a one percent shift in the average left-right ideology index in most EU countries,” they conclude.
