It’s reasonably well documented that the Brexit referendum saw a boost in hate crimes against immigrants. Interesting research from Cardiff University highlights, however, that the biggest rise in hate crimes actually occurred in areas that voted to leave.

The study compares hate crimes between the countries of the UK since the Brexit referendum in 2016. The researchers assessed data for police force areas in both England and Wales, which revealed that the areas with the highest share of remain voters typically saw smaller increases in hate crimes after the vote. Similar figures were found in both Northern Ireland and Scotland too.

Rise in hate

The researchers took into account over 30 other events that could have contributed to such a rise, including the terrorist attacks on London Bridge and Westminster, and found that the Brexit vote contributed to the second highest spike in hate crimes. Indeed, the only event that contributed more was the attack on Manchester Arena.

“Our findings show that leave areas across all corners of the UK saw larger spikes in hate crimes following the historic Brexit vote,” the authors explain. “It could be that the outcome of the vote meant some individuals with prejudicial views felt more justified in their opinions, leading them to be more vocal and confident to commit race and religious hate crimes—either on the streets or via social media platforms.”

The researchers are confident that this rise was not due to any increases in reporting of crimes or by increases in appeals for information from the police, but instead by the rising number of crimes themselves. Indeed, the Home Office themselves attributed the largest rise in hate crimes ever recorded in 2017 to the Brexit vote.

“There seems to be no slowing in the rise in police recorded hate crime, and in the regularity of trigger events that seem to have powerful observable positive associations with the hardening of prejudiced attitudes and in turn the expression of identity-based hostility,” the authors conclude.

“Significant questions remain over the short- and long-term governance of hate crime. The Government’s continued reliance on traditional criminal justice interventions of more or better policing and harsher sentencing must remain under question. That hate crime is so dependent on temporal forces clearly suggests a reassessment is in order. Further research is needed to understand these links better.”