A common sticking point in progressing climate negotiations is getting developed and developing nations to work together. A recent paper from Tsinghua University highlights this divide and argues that there needs to be significant movement in terms of technology transfer between rich and poor countries if global climate targets are to be met.
Tech support
The researchers analyzed the various trends that are driving emissions in the 59 countries where emissions grew faster than average between 2010 and 2018 (although they notably excluded India and China from their analysis). They then projected the emissions in each country using a number of longer-term energy scenarios while also estimating the costs of decarbonization.
The results show that the total emissions from emerging markets were much greater than would be required to limit warming to 2°C or even 1.5°C. This would therefore require non-emitting energy deployment from most sectors within these economies and a much faster and deeper reduction in emissions from other countries in order for climate goals to be met.
The costs involved in this effort are also significant, and amount to up to 4.1% of national GDP. This suggests that there will have to be trade-offs made with poverty reduction goals, and the researchers believe that technology transfer of low-carbon technologies could greatly assist. The authors believe that the results illustrate the importance of focusing on countries that have often been overlooked in climate discussions.
“Global carbon space for limiting 1.5°C is exhausting while we need to give sufficient consideration of global equality of socioeconomic developments,” they explain. “Developed countries must go negative emissions as soon as possible in order to accommodate the space to be required by emerging emitting economies.”
This is crucial as many developing nations are well on the way towards industrialization but lack the technical and financial capacity to do so in a low-carbon way. To achieve this, the authors believe that much more needs to be done by developed countries to help support such efforts.
“China can potentially play a bridging role in promoting North- South and South-South collaborations in knowledge transfers and technological spillovers for help the emerging emitters to increase their emission discharge per unit of output (therefore less emissions), decelerate their emission growth trends, and eventually reduce emission space required for their economic growth,” the authors conclude.
