In a recent article, I explored how tech transfer to poorer countries is likely to be crucial in helping the world tackle climate change. Research from Iowa State University reminds us that migration and trade are likely to be equally important.

The researchers developed an economic model to help understand how countries and markets might adopt according to things like job options, trade, and migration as the climate changes.

“Most models don’t take into consideration that geographic locations are linked in particular ways through trade and migration and that people may change jobs,” the researchers explain. “Our model shows that these linkages really matter when trying to think about the economic impacts of climate change, and we shouldn’t ignore them.”

Climate impact

The model suggests that the global economy will be hit by around 20% by 2100, with countries in colder regions likely to fare better than those in warmer regions.

This will impact migration, with people likely to move from the south of the US to the north. The researchers believe that states like Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin will see an influx of people moving from hot regions.

“Florida is predicted to get unbearably hot in 100 years, but people don’t have to stay there. They can move, which is a form of adaptation,” they explain.

A new engine

The model also suggests that the Northeast and Upper Midwest will take on a more significant manufacturing role, with agricultural jobs also more likely to shift north. Southern states will therefore experience economic losses and have to rely more on trade over time.

States are also likely to benefit if there are more opportunities for people to change jobs from those heavily affected by climate change to those less so. The researchers believe that their model illustrates that this trade between states is likely to play a bigger role than job switching or migration, but that the combination of all three is likely to be greater than the sum of their parts.

Suffice it to say, the researchers accept that their model doesn’t account for any new policies or innovations over the next few decades that could alter the impact of climate change. But by isolating the impacts of certain factors and seeing how they interact, the researchers show trade, migration, and job options need to be part of the discussion.