Many governments implemented so-called austerity measures in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis in an attempt to get public finances back in order after large borrowing was implemented to bail out financial institutions. Given the intense strain on public coffers caused by both the Covid pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, governments are considering similar actions again now.

Research from the University of Southampton suggests this would be a mistake, as they believe that the first bout of austerity was linked with a rise in crime across urban areas of England and Wales.

Rising crime

The research looks at the impact of austerity politics on crime in England and Wales between 2011 and 2015. It highlights four particular aspects of crime that were affected:

• Increase in district-level crime;
• Crime is more concentrated in urban areas;
• Neighborhoods deemed more deprived before austerity experienced the sharpest increase in crime;
• An increase in new offenders.

“Putting these four pieces of evidence together paints a comprehensive picture of the negative consequences of the first wave of austerity on crime in England and Wales,” the researchers explain.

The austerity politics introduced by the UK government saw a considerable fall in public spending, with particular reductions in many welfare programs.

“What we know is that the areas hit by austerity 1.0 have been affected almost consistently since 2010 and that it never really ended,” the researchers continue. “If austerity 2.0 were to occur, it will create an additional strain on the communities that have lived under the cuts for over a decade now.”

Regional impact

The analysis found that a number of areas were especially hard hit, including London boroughs, seaside towns, and older, industrial areas. The data suggests that austerity measures resulted in a 3.7% increase in total crime.

“The first wave of austerity led to higher crime in districts more exposed to the cuts, and concentrated crime within districts were considerably higher in more deprived neighborhoods,” the researchers explain.

These areas were already suffering from poverty and deprivation even before the cuts, so it’s perhaps not surprising that they also witnessed the biggest increase in crime during the first years of austerity.

“Given that these areas were already suffering from other consequences due to austerity, our results for crime show an additional negative outcome being layered on to areas hardest hit by the welfare cuts,” the researchers continue.

The researchers believe that their findings highlight the impact of the significant cuts to welfare introduced during the post-2008 period. They hope that the government will take note of this impact before introducing any similar cuts in the wake of 2022.

“Any government that takes seriously the idea of evidence-based policy will want to consider these wider consequences when implementing future austerity-related policies,” they conclude.

“Second, we document a net welfare loss from austerity 1.0—the welfare losses we calculate far exceeded the financial savings to the Treasury.”