Political violence seems to have risen in recent years, perhaps culminating in the events at the US Capitol in the wake of Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. A recent article from Penn State explores the drivers of this change. The paper outlines four main driers: “toxic” political polarization; “toxic” identity-based ideologies; assaults on democratic norms; and disinformation and conspiracy theories.

The authors highlight that around a third of Americans believe that political violence is acceptable, with a majority believing that it’s something that is likely to result in widespread civil conflict in the future.

Four drivers

Toxic political polarization has become all too evident as the two main political parties have become increasingly hostile toward one another. This growing polarization underpins support for and the occurrence of political violence.

Identity-based ideologies have also resulted in the mainstreaming of what were once extreme political ideologies are also strongly linked with an increasing acceptance of political violence.

Third, liberal democratic norms, and the institutions that are based upon them, are being eroded in the United States. These norms and institutions are crucial for channeling grievances into legal, nonviolent democratic behaviors. As they weaken, political violence moves into the mainstream.

Finally, the U.S. information ecosystem, particularly social media, facilitates the dissemination of disinformation and conspiracy theories. Researchers have found that both disinformation and conspiratorial mindsets contribute to increased political violence and tolerance of political violence in democratic societies.

The article concludes by stating that all these drivers represent the mainstreaming of extremist politics with the potential of violence. To push them back into the margins of American politics, several potential reforms should be considered. These include political reforms associated with electoral politics as well as media and social media reforms.