While the duopoly seems impregnable in the United States, in Europe it’s far more common for new political parties to emerge. Research from the University of Exeter suggests that parties are most likely to thrive if they’re not created by existing parliamentarians.
The study, which examined the evolution of over 200 political parties from 22 democracies, found that when parties are created by existing politicians, they’re more likely to die in midlife, while those with connections to social organizations would either die quickly or endure for longer.
Insider status
Parties created by existing parliamentarians were nearly 2% more likely to fail in the short-term, and 3.15% more likely to have failed within a decade of their creation.
“By then, the MPs who helped build the new formation may have deserted it or their political careers may have ended,” the researchers explain. “The departure of these founders—interested in protecting their own position of power—tends to disrupt insider parties, as they are unlikely to have invested in procedures for leadership renewal earlier on. Insider status has no significant impact on the probability of merging in early stages.”
Parties that are “socially rooted,” meaning they are supported by pre-existing societal organizations, are on average 2.13 percentage points less likely to dissolve. Neither insider status nor societal rootedness has an effect on the probability of political parties merging.
Parties with a new ideology are less likely to merge with others, with a 0.83 percentage point decline in the likelihood of merging over the average party’s lifespan. Parties that are built from scratch have an average probability of merging that is statistically indistinguishable from zero, regardless of whether they are ideologically novel.
A party formed with the support of a pre-existing societal organization is 1.77 percentage points less likely to dissolve in its first 18 years of existence compared to a party without such a base.
“These resources can be critical in limiting the risk of dissolution—especially during adolescence, when the organization is not yet institutionalized and is therefore particularly vulnerable,” the researchers conclude. “As parties mature organizationally and broaden their support base, promoter organizations matter less. The probability of dissolution between parties with and without external societal support becomes statistically indistinguishable over the next decade of their lives.”
Parties formed by existing parliamentarians are more likely to die in their midlife. Those with connections with societal organizations are less likely to dissolve early or late in the life of the political party.
