The Covid pandemic had a very clear impact on mobility, so it stands to reason that it significantly lowered migration levels. Research from the University of Portsmouth aimed to find out the true extent of the impact. It finds that the pandemic impacted immigration differently in different destinations, with some seeing a slight increase and others a huge reduction.
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global population are undeniable, including on international migration. While research has examined its impact on life expectancy and fertility, the effect on migration is less clear. Mobility restrictions such as border closures and lockdowns likely had a negative impact on international migration, but the extent of this impact varies across countries.
Reduced mobility
The researchers examined the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in 15 high-income countries during 2020 by using statistical modeling to forecast immigration counts in the absence of COVID-19 and comparing them to actual immigration counts.
The study analyzed immigration in 12 European countries, as well as Australia, Canada, and the United States. It also investigated how different factors, including travel restrictions, mobility restrictions, lockdowns, work and school closures, and increases in unemployment, may have affected immigration counts.
“A few studies speculated about the mechanisms of how the pandemic may have impacted migration or how travel disruptions may have affected migrants’ plans,” the researchers explain. “However, this is the first empirical paper providing evidence of how the pandemic impacted immigration across countries and exploring the underpinning potential driving forces of these changes, such as travel restrictions and other stringency measures.”
General decline
The study found that immigration decreased in all countries studied, except Finland. The decline varied widely among countries, with Australia experiencing the greatest drop at 59.9%. Spain and Sweden had declines of 45.4% and 36.4%, respectively. Seven other countries had decreases between 15% and 30%, and four countries had decreases less than 15%, which were not statistically significant.
The study also revealed that immigration declines were related to international travel restrictions, mobility restrictions, and stay-at-home requirements. However, work and school closures and unemployment did not have an impact.
“Immigration helps to prevent or mitigate depopulation and brings labor force and skills to where they are needed. Thus, understanding changes in the global network of international migration is essential to ensure appropriate policies in aging societies,” the researchers conclude.
