A new study by Linnaeus University has found that the rapidly growing population of millionaires around the world is making it difficult, if not impossible, to meet the emissions reduction goals outlined in the Paris Agreement.
The study predicts that within just a few decades, millionaires will be responsible for nearly three-quarters of all carbon dioxide emissions. This is due to the high consumption and travel patterns of the wealthy, which generate a disproportionate amount of greenhouse gas emissions compared to the general population.
Outsized impact
The study found that a small portion of the global population is responsible for a significant portion of emissions from commercial air travel, primarily from premium-class flights for wealthy, frequent travelers.
The researchers created a model to predict the number of millionaires in the world by 2050 and their emissions. The findings indicate that the percentage of millionaires will rise from 0.7% currently to 3.3% by 2050.
The model estimates that their emissions will account for 72% of the remaining carbon budget, greatly reducing the possibility of achieving the 1.5 degree Celsius climate stabilization goal.
“A continued growth in emissions at the top makes a low-carbon transition less likely, as the accelerating energy consumption by the wealthiest is likely beyond the system’s capacity to phase out fossil fuels. Therefore, we question whether policy measures like, for instance, progressive taxes targeting the high emitters will be sufficient to meet climate goals,” the researchers explain.
What to do
The study raises the question of legislation mandating the wealthy to adopt technology with zero carbon emissions. This would necessitate a significant increase in the use of renewable energy, particularly for fuel production, which is already challenging to accomplish with current energy consumption levels.
“In order to eliminate dependence on Russian import of coal, oil, and gas and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, countries like—for instance—Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Denmark, have vowed to increase their investments in offshore wind energy,” the researchers explain. “This puts additional pressure on the already ambitious plans to produce half of Europe’s electricity from wind energy by midcentury.”
An important consideration for the future is whether it will be feasible to create the sustainable aviation fuel needed for a small proportion of the population. If not, it may be necessary to implement policies to regulate and restrict energy-intensive premium class and private air travel among the wealthy to meet energy demands.
“Much has been written on the unequal distribution of emissions between individuals. There is a proven link between wealth and emissions; there is an extremely big difference between how much a person in—for instance—Central Africa generates in emissions compared to very wealthy individuals,” the authors continue.
Barriers to change
The researchers highlight that while measures to limit emissions from high emitters, such as progressive emissions taxes, are necessary, they are hindered by three main barriers.
The first barrier is the reluctance of policy makers to limit the energy use and investment decisions of the wealthy, as wealth accumulation is seen as desirable for economic growth.
The second barrier is the increasingly polarized political climate, where politicians lack the courage to implement mitigation policies. The third barrier is the lack of effective policy designs to reduce emissions from the wealthiest.
Despite the issue of high emissions from the wealthy receiving media attention, there is little evidence of politicians taking systematic action beyond market-based measures like small increases in carbon taxes. Thus, addressing emissions from the wealthy will be a complex task.
