Linda Gratton famously argued that as we live longer the age of three distinct phases in life will be over and we’ll have a much more fluid interface between work, study, and leisure. It’s a thesis that is examined in new research from the Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm, which examines the employment timelines of Swedish workers.

Changing demographics

Concerns are rising in high-income countries as populations age and birthrates decline, as there may not be enough workers to cover the increasing costs of health care and social security. To tackle this issue, some governments are implementing policies to extend the number of years people spend working, such as raising the retirement age. However, there is limited research on people’s long-term working timelines and the factors that affect them.

To address this knowledge gap, the researchers analyzed data from Swedish registers of economic activity and social and health-related benefits, linked to the Swedish Living Conditions Surveys, which are conducted annually among thousands of people in Sweden. They used a tool called sequence analysis to study 15-year timelines of employment.

Their analysis identified five general patterns of employment timelines. 65% of the timelines showed continuous activity in employment or education throughout the 15-year period. The other timelines showed varying combinations of active work and interruptions involving long-term parental leave, unemployment, sickness or disability benefits, or retirement.

Gender differences

The researchers found gender differences in employment patterns, even in a country with high levels of gender equality like Sweden. Women were more likely than men to have interruptions involving sickness or disability benefits or long-term parental leave. Both men and women with low education or poor health were more likely to have timelines involving both periods of unemployment and periods of receiving sickness or disability benefits.

The authors suggest that their findings could apply to other Nordic countries with similar welfare and economic policies. However, they acknowledge that their study only included adults who were in paid work at the beginning of the study period, so it may not represent marginalized adults or those who had yet to enter the labor market.

“In this population-based Swedish study, we examined future working life patterns among individuals initially aged 18–50 and in paid work,” the researchers conclude. “The majority of the women and men were working or studying without longer interruptions due to health or family-related reasons throughout the 15-year follow-up, however, women had higher odds of following working life courses with longer periods (>183 days/year) of interruptions due to parental leave and sickness-absence benefits, independent from socioeconomic-, work- and health-related factors.”