As a result of the widespread adoption of remote working during the Covid pandemic, many feared that it would result in an exodus from cities as people looked for properties that were larger and more affordable in places that were also quieter.
Research from the University of Oxford suggests that these fears may have materialized, with nearly all major metropolitan areas in Europe losing population since the pandemic. The researchers detected a number of clear patterns in terms of the impact the pandemic had on the long-term growth of cities across Europe.
In reverse
Foremost among these was the interruption in the trend towards greater urbanization that had been going on for some time. Instead, population growth in most European cities went into reverse during the first year of the pandemic.
This reversal was especially prominent among those cities with a population above 500,000, with nearly all of the 66 or so European cities with such a population seeing a fall in their growth rate.
“In the short run, it was the exceptional pandemic-induced drop in net migration that generated the largest sudden shock to urban Europe,” the researchers explain.
“But, in the long run, it is natural population decline that will become the main concern for most European cities, especially for smaller cities, which have been hit hardest by the death surplus – the excess of deaths over births – which accompanied COVID-19.”
Unexpected outcome
According to the study, out-migration from European cities during the pandemic was both sudden and substantial, causing even the largest cities to shrink. This is surprising because many believed that human inertia and high costs associated with moving would prevent a mass exodus from cities. However, the research shows that almost a third (28%) of all 915 European cities analyzed experienced a U-turn from population growth to loss, resulting in 63% of all cities experiencing shrinkage during COVID-19.
This is a significant increase compared to the previous peak shrinkage in the late 1990s when 55% of all European cities were losing population. In contrast, during the period between 1960-1965, only 3% of European cities were losing population.
The study attributes this loss to two key factors. Firstly, the rapid decline in net migration, which fell by as much as 137%, was due to residents leaving cities in higher numbers than newcomers arriving to settle, particularly in the largest urban areas. Secondly, death rates increased faster in cities than in the countryside in most European countries, resulting in an overall increase of 13.5%.
Overall, the study shows that the pandemic had a significant impact on the population of European cities, with many experiencing a U-turn in population growth and an increase in shrinkage. This was largely due to a decline in net migration and an increase in death rates, particularly in urban areas.
Permanent change
The researchers believe that more research will be required to understand whether the changes they’ve observed thus far will be permanent or transient in nature.
“The post-COVID-19 revival will benefit the upper layer of urban hierarchy in the first place, helping re-grow and expand the largest cities, the core metropolitan areas,” they explain. “Smaller cities will continue to suffer from death surplus and out-migration.”
The researchers conclude that although COVID-19 has had an equalizing effect on the fortunes of European cities, it will be the post-pandemic recovery that will result in a growing disparity in the demographic development of these cities.
