It’s estimated that nearly six million people were displaced in the weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Less is known, however, about the number of people who were displaced inside the country. Research from the University of Oxford has utilized social media to highlight the extent of this internal displacement.

This novel study introduces a pioneering metric for tracking population displacement in Ukraine following the Russian invasion. The metric employs daily data from the United Nations regarding the number of people crossing the Ukrainian border, alongside the researchers’ daily monitoring of active Facebook users, to gauge population displacement across various Ukrainian provinces. Furthermore, the metric accounts for the percentage of Facebook users active before the invasion to eliminate any potential biases.

Forced displacement

“Forced displacement of populations due to conflict is inherently difficult to measure as this often relies on traditional field survey methods which are difficult in conflict areas, with results becoming quickly outdated,” the researchers explain. “By using social media and targeted advertising data, we were able to very quickly collect information on daily active users on Facebook in Ukraine provinces and break them down into five-year age groups and sex.”

Between 25 February and 14 March 2022, an estimated 5.3 million individuals were displaced from their home province, according to recent research. During this same period, the International Organization for Migration estimated a comparable level of internal population displacement of approximately 6 million people.

These findings played a crucial role in the United Nations’ reassessment of its initial estimate of internal displacement, which was revised from 1.6 million people to 6.5 million people as of 16 March 2022.

The scale of the problem

The study’s projections indicate that, in slightly over three months since the outset of Russia’s invasion, more than six million individuals had been displaced from their home provinces.

The research also gauged population surges in western Ukraine, as well as significant displacements, predominantly among women and children, from conflict zones such as Kyiv before and during the Ukraine Crisis.

“After reaching out to humanitarian groups who were ramping up their response to support displaced populations in Ukraine, it became really clear to us that our daily population estimates could help the United Nations and others to assess humanitarian needs and develop a targeted response strategy,” the researchers conclude. “This metric is one of the only quantitative estimates of internal displacement in virtual real-time, which we are continuing to develop to help those in need during humanitarian crises.”