Baseball player Lefty Gomez famously said that he’d rather be lucky than good, yet as a society we still tend to downplay the role luck plays in success, instead preferring to apportion success down to hard work and aptitude. It’s a debate that has intensified as income inequality has risen throughout the world.
A study from the University of Catania in Italy attempted to understand just what role luck plays in our success (or failure). The researchers modeled human talent and how that talent is used throughout life. This model enabled them to explore how big a role chance plays in our outcomes.
The model tracks each individual through a typical 40-year working life, with random lucky or unlucky events sprinkled throughout. The lucky events increase their wealth whereas the unlucky ones reduce it. At the end of the simulation, each individual is ranked according to their wealth, with the team then able to delve into their ‘life’ to see just how that wealth came about, and whether any successful characteristics emerge. Being a computer simulation, this process is then repeated a few times to make sure the findings are robust.
Whilst the wealth was distributed broadly in accordance with real-world observations, this wealth did not appear to be distributed according to talent. Indeed, the wealthiest individuals weren’t anywhere near the top of the talent pile.
So what was responsible? Well, it appears as though it was pure luck. The team ranked the individuals in the experiment according to the luck they had experienced during the simulation, and the correlation between the amount of luck and overall wealth was clear, with the luckiest clustering near the top, and the unluckiest clustering near the bottom.
The role of chance
A second study, by Audencia Business School in Paris, also found that chance plays a considerable role in our careers. The study included a survey of 682 managers, wherein they were asked about the prevalence, nature, and perceived impact of chance events, as well as how their individual characteristics related to these events and career outcomes.
The majority of the participants (62.17%, or 424 respondents out of 682) reported having experienced a chance event that significantly influenced their careers. Of these respondents, 414 indicated the nature of the event and its impact. Amongst them, 77.29% (320 respondents) reported having experienced positive chance events, while 22.71% (94 respondents) experienced negative ones.
The research team identified four distinct scenarios that emerged from the data. The most intriguing of these was the case of a negative event leading to a positive impact, which applied to the majority of those experiencing negative events (71.28%, or 67 respondents out of 94).
Unexpected boost
Negative events ranged from organizational restructuring to toxic management, while positive outcomes included changing companies or sectors, adopting new career stances, and other beneficial changes.
The remaining scenarios included negative events leading to negative impacts (reported by 28.72% of respondents who experienced negative events) and positive events leading to positive impacts (reported by 96.88% of respondents who experienced positive events). The latter was the most prevalent case, with positive events including chance encounters that led to career development opportunities, promotions, and other confidence-boosting changes.
The study’s findings suggest that chance events can play a critical role in career progression, with over six out of ten participants reporting that they had influenced their careers. Notably, in over 70% of cases where a negative event occurred, it ultimately had a positive impact on the participant’s career.
Long-term gains
Interestingly, participants who did not report any significant chance events tended to earn less and hold lower status positions, although they were less likely to experience burnout and had higher levels of psychological well-being at work.
These insights regarding the role of chance events in careers can help us better understand career progression and develop guidelines and advice for individuals and organizations. Chance events can act as a catalyst for careers, leading to career shocks and influencing professional development from early stages. Therefore, it is crucial to recognize and take into account this phenomenon and avoid viewing careers as a strictly linear progression.
The importance of luck
In the current business landscape marked by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, it is crucial for HR professionals to recognize the capricious nature of chance events, particularly in the context of managerial careers.
To navigate the labyrinthine career paths, personalized mentoring, career counseling, and flexible coaching approaches are essential. Adaptability, a vital managerial competence, can be nurtured by fostering soft skills like resilience, which can prove instrumental for success.
Therefore, organizations should impart training to their managers on building resilience and agility to enable them to carve out sustainable careers that are well-suited for the 21st century.
