Can urban transport in the world’s major cities become more environmentally friendly while ensuring minimal impact on residents? A recent study by the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change employing a model-based approach, analyzing 120 prominent cities worldwide, demonstrates that these two critical objectives can be effectively reconciled. By implementing tailor-made climate policies in transportation without compromising the quality of life in these cities, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 22% within a 15-year timeframe.
The researchers utilized the well-established NEDUM calculation model, widely recognized in regional economics, incorporating data on population densities, land utilization, dwelling sizes, rental rates, and transportation expenses for each respective city. They then assessed four distinct approaches to climate policy in urban transport: fuel taxes, adoption of energy-efficient vehicles, investments in public transportation, and climate-friendly urban development. These approaches were implemented independently as well as in combination.
Striking the balance
The study produced two primary outcomes for each city and scenario: the volume of climate gas emissions from urban transportation and a measurement of the residents’ well-being. The latter encompassed not only the material standard of living but also assigned a monetary value to the health impacts of traffic, encompassing factors such as noise, exhaust fumes, accidents, as well as the health benefits associated with walking or cycling.
Across the 120 major cities under scrutiny, the study revealed that climate gas emissions can be curtailed by 4 to 12% over a 15-year period, contingent upon the pursued urban climate policy approach. However, if all four approaches are adopted simultaneously, emissions can be reduced by a substantial 31%. These initial findings align broadly with existing estimates within the research literature. Nevertheless, the interim results concerning residents’ well-being exhibit a modest decline, averaging at 3% below the baseline. Nevertheless, the significance of this new study lies in its subsequent step, whereby the research team imposed the constraint that the well-being of inhabitants must experience at least marginal improvement.
Under this condition, which underscores the political feasibility, the calculation model proceeded to determine the policy package that would yield the greatest climate protection effect for each individual city. The outcome revealed that out of the maximum attainable 31% emission savings, a significant 22% can still be realized while concurrently experiencing an average 1% increase in residents’ well-being.
“So it appears possible to reduce emissions in a welfare-increasing way in each city while achieving most of the global emission reductions,” the researchers conclude. “However, in view of the local specifics, a context-adequate strategy is really needed in each case; there is no one-size-fits-all solution here. This is what makes the upcoming reform of the road traffic regulations in Germany, for example, so significant. Implementation would finally allow municipalities to act flexibly when it comes to climate protection.”
