Among the regions within the European Union, Eastern Europe stands as the least attractive destination for professionals seeking settlement, according to a study led by researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock. Utilizing data from the employment platform LinkedIn, the study aimed to assess migration interest and revealed that fewer professionals from Northern, Southern, and Western European countries express a desire to relocate to the East. However, the appeal of Eastern Europe may undergo a transformation in the coming years.

Migration serves as a significant catalyst for economic, demographic, social, and political transformations, thereby warranting considerable attention from policymakers. Yet, previous studies faced challenges posed by incomplete statistics, outdated data, and surveys with limited scope.

To overcome these limitations, the research team harnessed the LinkedIn “recruiter” tool to identify users in the European Union’s 27 member states, along with the United Kingdom, who indicated their openness to cross-border relocation for employment opportunities.

Migration patterns

By leveraging this expansive dataset, the study provides valuable insights into the preferences of professionals regarding migration destinations within the European Union. Although Eastern Europe currently ranks lower in appeal, it remains plausible that the region’s attractiveness could undergo shifts in the foreseeable future.

Such research initiatives contribute to a more nuanced understanding of migration dynamics, enabling policymakers to make informed decisions and design targeted strategies to facilitate the movement of professionals and their contributions to different regions within the European Union.

“Using LinkedIn enabled us to leverage a previously untapped data source to get a comprehensive look at professional migration interests,” the researchers explain. “When people are surveyed, intentions to move are often vague and a move may never materialize. A key difference in our study is that we looked at behavior on LinkedIn. People who are express an interest relocating for a job tend to be at a more advanced planning stage. If the opportunity arises, they may really be open to moving.”

Most interest

The researchers discovered that Northern and Western Europe garnered the highest level of interest among LinkedIn users. Approximately 60% of professionals who expressed openness to relocation for employment purposes showed a preference for countries like Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, or Sweden.

Southern European nations, such as Italy and Spain, attracted around 40% of migration interest, while Eastern Europe captured a considerably smaller share, standing at a modest one-third (30%).

Furthermore, it was observed that many LinkedIn users willing to consider a move to Eastern Europe already reside in the region or in close proximity to it. For instance, individuals from Austria, Greece, Romania, and the Czech Republic demonstrated a greater inclination to relocate to countries like Bulgaria. Therefore, it is more likely for individuals from the Eastern European region or neighboring countries to express interest in moving to Eastern Europe, as highlighted by Zagheni, one of the researchers involved in the study.

However, it is worth noting that there are exceptions to this trend, particularly in countries where substantial communities of Eastern European professionals have already established themselves. These unique circumstances may contribute to a different migration pattern and level of interest within specific locations.

“We see a high openness to move to Poland from Germany and the U.K. We assume that it’s partially related to return migration.” In other words: Polish professionals who want to go back home.

Minimal attraction

The limited allure of heading east remains a perplexing phenomenon. The absence of widespread enthusiasm for migrating towards Eastern European countries can be attributed to several factors, as revealed by the insightful research conducted by Zagheni and his team. While visas and work permits pose no hindrance within the European Union, language barriers and weaker economies emerge as significant deterrents.

Employing LinkedIn data as a reliable source, the researchers have identified employment opportunities as the primary driving force underlying migration patterns.

However, it is worth noting that the scarcity of suitable job prospects within a particular region can often mask an underlying inclination to relocate there. This observation is particularly evident in Southern Europe, where an initial examination of overall migration tendencies indicated a preference for moving towards the northern or western regions of the Union, characterized by a plethora of employment options.

Only upon closer scrutiny, accounting for factors such as population densities, internet access, and LinkedIn utilization, did the scientists uncover the latent desirability of Southern Europe as a sought-after destination for potential migrants.

“Unexpectedly, there was a higher fraction of people in Northern and Western Europe who would want to move south, compared to what we would have expected to see purely based on differences in demographic factors, internet usage, and related variables. We interpret this observation as a sign of a mismatch between the lack of opportunities in Southern Europe and the number of people who would potentially want to go,” they explain.

There remains the possibility of a similar dynamic taking shape in Eastern Europe in the near future. Countries like Romania and Poland harbor substantial untapped potential. From a structural standpoint, the essential elements may already be in place to fuel a surge in migration aspirations.

Among these factors lies a strong inclination among a considerable pool of highly skilled expatriates to return to their homelands. With the appropriate incentives and opportunities in play, the stage could be set for a notable shift in migration patterns toward Eastern Europe.

Furthermore, the authors explain that even presently, Eastern Europe holds allure for job seekers hailing from other corners of the globe. He points to the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which prompted numerous individuals to relocate to countries such as Poland or the Czech Republic.

Contrary to prevailing concerns about population decline in these nations, the situation may not be as dire as anticipated, as various countries beyond the confines of the European Union may find Eastern Europe particularly appealing.