Efforts to cut down on greenhouse gas emissions have worked to some extent, but a new study by UCL researchers suggests that we need stricter rules to meet the temperature goals set in the Paris Agreement.
The study looked at how much greenhouse gases we’ve been putting into the air over the last 20 years compared to what we’re doing to reduce them. Since the early 2000s, governments worldwide have put in place lots of rules to try and reduce these emissions.
Reducing emissions
During this time, we’ve still been putting more greenhouse gases into the air, but the rate at which we’re doing it has slowed down in recent years. Between 2000 and 2010, emissions went up by 2.3% each year, but that slowed to 1.3% per year until 2014, and then dropped even further to 0.8% per year.
These rules include things like using less energy, making clean technology cheaper, protecting forests, and using cleaner sources of energy.
The researchers found that if we hadn’t put these rules in place, we would have released a lot more carbon dioxide into the air during this time. They estimate that each year, we’ve released 2 to 7 billion fewer tons of carbon dioxide because of these rules. That’s a reduction of 4% to 15%.
“Although we found that policies have delivered on their stated goal of reducing emissions, the world remains on a path towards catastrophe,” the researchers explain. “It is heartening to see that efforts so far have not been in vain, and the avoided emissions we identified demonstrate that policy has not been entirely superfluous to the slowdown in emissions growth.”
But, here’s the catch: even though this is good progress, it’s not enough to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The Agreement wants us to limit global warming to only 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above what the temperature was before we started messing with the climate. We still have more work to do to make sure we reach that target.
Clean energy
The researchers discovered that the biggest factor in cutting emissions was policies supporting the use of clean energy technologies, like renewable energy and electric cars. These policies alone reduced nearly a billion tons of carbon dioxide in 2022.
These policies work by stopping carbon emissions right at the source, which the researchers say is the best way to fight climate change. Other actions, like putting a tax on carbon emissions, reducing deforestation, and saving energy, also helped, but not as much.
International agreements also played a role in reducing greenhouse gases. The Kyoto Protocol, made in 1997, led to a 7% drop in emissions between 2008 and 2012. While we’re still not sure about the full impact of the 2015 Paris Agreement, researchers see positive signs, such as more countries committing to net-zero emissions and other efforts to tackle the problem.
“While existing efforts are vastly insufficient for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, three decades of mitigation policy have demonstrably lowered emissions and put us on a trajectory that makes reaching climate neutrality by mid-century a tenable goal,” the researchers conclude. “Climate protection efforts have not been in vain. Policies have already led to a discernible reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.”
