Climate change is making sea levels rise, and younger folks are moving away from the coasts, says a study from Florida State University. This means older coastal residents are left dealing with some tough challenges, like a shortage of healthcare workers. While cities welcoming the newcomers are trying to handle the situation sustainably, the coastal communities are in for a bit of a shake-up.

“In the destination communities where populations are increasing, you’ll need more dentists, doctors, service workers, construction workers, etc.,” the researchers explain. “So by people moving, you affect other people’s likelihood of moving. You get a demographic amplification.”

Relocation decisions

Previous studies predicted where people might relocate due to a changing climate’s impact on living conditions. This research goes a step further by including demographic info and other consequences, uncovering a bunch of challenges for both the coastal communities people are leaving (“sender” communities) and the places they’re moving to.

The researchers made a migration model using sea level rise data from Climate Central and migration patterns info from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. This tool helped them predict where people would move, county by county, across the country.

“Imagine young families moving out of areas like Miami and moving to other locations and starting a family there,” the authors explain. “And just by the fact that there are more people who have moved there, these indirect population processes draw even more people.”

Rise in climate migrants

The study found that these indirect processes might lead to 5.3 to 18 times more climate migrants compared to those directly forced to move by rising seas. Additionally, it projected that by the year 2100, the average age in coastal communities could jump by as much as 10 years.

“Think about who is more unlikely to move and who will be left behind in these communities; it tends to be the oldest,” the researchers conclude. “Because migration is most likely to occur in more youthful populations, areas experiencing accelerated out-migration could face accelerated population aging.”