In the coming years, individuals are expected to have over 35% fewer relatives. Family structures will transform, with a significant decrease in the number of cousins, nieces, nephews, and grandchildren, while the count of great-grandparents and grandparents will rise substantially. Back in 1950, a 65-year-old woman typically had around 41 living relatives. However, by 2095, a woman of the same age is projected to have an average of only 25 living relatives.
This forecast comes from recent research conducted by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, examining the global evolution of human kinship relationships.
“We asked ourselves how demographic change will affect the ‘endowment’ of kinship in the future,” the researchers explain. “What was the size, structure, and age distribution of families in the past, and how will they evolve in the future?”
Changing family unit
To conduct the study, the researchers examined both historical and projected data, relying on the 2022 revision of the United Nations’ World Population Prospects.
“We use mathematical models to represent the relationship between a person, their ancestors, and their descendants in a given time period. The model provides average age and sex distributions for different types of kinship for each calendar year,” the authors continue.
The researchers recorded variations in family size globally, categorizing it as the count of living great-grandparents, grandparents, parents, children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren, aunts and uncles, nieces and nephews, siblings, and cousins.
“We expect the overall size of families to decline permanently in all regions of the world. We expect the largest declines in South America and the Caribbean,” the researchers say.
Smaller family tree
In 1950, the average 65-year-old woman in that region had 56 living relatives. However, by 2095, this number is anticipated to decrease to 18.3 relatives, marking a significant 67% decline. In North America and Europe, where family sizes are already relatively small, the changes will be less dramatic. For instance, a 65-year-old woman had around 25 living relatives in 1950, but by 2095, this figure is expected to decrease to 15.9 relatives.
Understanding these projections of kinship is crucial, particularly in the context of rapidly aging populations. With smaller birth cohorts, there’s an increasing responsibility for caring for older adults who have fewer or no relatives.
“Our findings confirm that the availability of kinship resources is declining worldwide. As the age gap between individuals and their relatives widens, people will have family networks that are not just smaller, but also older,” the authors conclude. “Consider the case of grandparents and great-grandparents, who are expected to be in greater supply in the future. While this could theoretically help ease the burden of childcare for parents, these (great-)grandparents may actually need care themselves.”
The study highlights the importance of investing in social support systems to safeguard the well-being of individuals across their lifespans. A significant portion of the global population lacks access to advanced social support structures. For these individuals, family connections continue to serve as a crucial source of support and informal care, and this reliance on family ties is expected to persist in the future.
